**Trader consensus has converged on a daily maximum of 28°C for Seoul/Incheon on August 15, 2026, reflecting real-time official observations and short-range model guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers (60% probability through the afternoon), and light winds have limited daytime heating, keeping temperatures from climbing further despite typical mid-August climatology. KMA short-range forecasts issued early on the 15th list a maximum of around 31°C but updated hourly readings and current conditions (mid-20s°C with high humidity) indicate the peak will settle at 28°C, consistent with the station’s official measurement window. This positioning aligns with atmospheric conditions—moist southerly flow and convective activity suppressing insolation—rather than the earlier August heatwave that produced peaks near 39°C. Historical August averages for the region fall between 28–31°C, providing context that 28°C represents a modest, rain-influenced outcome within normal variability. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing skies or a sharper model shift in the final hours, allowing additional surface heating before the daily maximum is recorded; however, ongoing precipitation signals make such a revision unlikely. Market-implied odds treat this as near-certain given the proximity to resolution and skin-in-the-game consensus on verified KMA data.