Market-implied odds heavily favor zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at 71 percent, driven by elevated inflation from higher energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions and a resilient labor market holding the unemployment rate at 4.3 percent in April. Recent CPI readings showed headline inflation rising to 3.8 percent year-over-year in April, prompting brokerages such as BofA and Goldman Sachs to delay expected easing into late 2026 or 2027. The March 2026 FOMC projections already reflected upward revisions to core PCE inflation at 2.7 percent for the year, reinforcing a cautious policy stance at the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range. With the next FOMC meeting still weeks away, traders are monitoring upcoming inflation and employment releases for any signs that could reopen the door to modest cuts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วมีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
มีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 71.0%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.7%
$26,865,905 ปริมาณ
$26,865,905 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
71%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
3%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
2%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 71.0%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.7%
$26,865,905 ปริมาณ
$26,865,905 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
$4,184,876 ปริมาณ
71%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,244,439 ปริมาณ
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,203,687 ปริมาณ
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,113,699 ปริมาณ
3%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,194,330 ปริมาณ
2%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,415,380 ปริมาณ
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,483,933 ปริมาณ
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
$1,322,077 ปริมาณ
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,726,561 ปริมาณ
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,449,311 ปริมาณ
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
$3,115,562 ปริมาณ
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
$3,263,005 ปริมาณ
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,149,244 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Market-implied odds heavily favor zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at 71 percent, driven by elevated inflation from higher energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions and a resilient labor market holding the unemployment rate at 4.3 percent in April. Recent CPI readings showed headline inflation rising to 3.8 percent year-over-year in April, prompting brokerages such as BofA and Goldman Sachs to delay expected easing into late 2026 or 2027. The March 2026 FOMC projections already reflected upward revisions to core PCE inflation at 2.7 percent for the year, reinforcing a cautious policy stance at the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range. With the next FOMC meeting still weeks away, traders are monitoring upcoming inflation and employment releases for any signs that could reopen the door to modest cuts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,865,905วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Market-implied odds heavily favor zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at 71 percent, driven by elevated inflation from higher energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions and a resilient labor market holding the unemployment rate at 4.3 percent in April. Recent CPI readings showed headline inflation rising to 3.8 percent year-over-year in April, prompting brokerages such as BofA and Goldman Sachs to delay expected easing into late 2026 or 2027. The March 2026 FOMC projections already reflected upward revisions to core PCE inflation at 2.7 percent for the year, reinforcing a cautious policy stance at the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range. With the next FOMC meeting still weeks away, traders are monitoring upcoming inflation and employment releases for any signs that could reopen the door to modest cuts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,865,905วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied odds heavily favor zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at 71 percent, driven by elevated inflation from higher energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions and a resilient labor market holding the unemployment rate at 4.3 percent in April. Recent CPI readings showed headline inflation rising to 3.8 percent year-over-year in April, prompting brokerages such as BofA and Goldman Sachs to delay expected easing into late 2026 or 2027. The March 2026 FOMC projections already reflected upward revisions to core PCE inflation at 2.7 percent for the year, reinforcing a cautious policy stance at the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range. With the next FOMC meeting still weeks away, traders are monitoring upcoming inflation and employment releases for any signs that could reopen the door to modest cuts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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