Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Market-implied odds assign a 70.3% probability to no easing, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and recent revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs that now delay any cuts until 2027. Strong labor market conditions and the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range further support a cautious monetary policy stance, with the market-implied path diverging from earlier 2026 dot-plot expectations of modest easing. June CPI and upcoming FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วมีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
มีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 70.2%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.6%
$26,957,631 ปริมาณ
$26,957,631 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
70%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
3%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 70.2%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.6%
$26,957,631 ปริมาณ
$26,957,631 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
$4,189,309 ปริมาณ
70%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,245,194 ปริมาณ
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,204,668 ปริมาณ
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,114,221 ปริมาณ
3%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,197,618 ปริมาณ
1%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,419,215 ปริมาณ
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,496,286 ปริมาณ
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
$1,326,491 ปริมาณ
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,736,514 ปริมาณ
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,457,047 ปริมาณ
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
$3,125,883 ปริมาณ
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
$3,276,965 ปริมาณ
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,168,370 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Market-implied odds assign a 70.3% probability to no easing, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and recent revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs that now delay any cuts until 2027. Strong labor market conditions and the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range further support a cautious monetary policy stance, with the market-implied path diverging from earlier 2026 dot-plot expectations of modest easing. June CPI and upcoming FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,957,631วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Market-implied odds assign a 70.3% probability to no easing, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and recent revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs that now delay any cuts until 2027. Strong labor market conditions and the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range further support a cautious monetary policy stance, with the market-implied path diverging from earlier 2026 dot-plot expectations of modest easing. June CPI and upcoming FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,957,631วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Market-implied odds assign a 70.3% probability to no easing, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and recent revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs that now delay any cuts until 2027. Strong labor market conditions and the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range further support a cautious monetary policy stance, with the market-implied path diverging from earlier 2026 dot-plot expectations of modest easing. June CPI and upcoming FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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