Persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict and elevated energy prices have driven the market-implied 70.3% probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The April 2026 CPI print accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts and reinforcing the FOMC’s April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Strong labor market conditions and internal policy divisions, including the highest dissent count in decades, have further anchored trader consensus around a pause. Recent analyst revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing first cuts into late 2026 or 2027 align with these dynamics, while upcoming May and June inflation releases and FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts shaping implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วมีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
มีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 70.2%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.6%
$26,955,517 ปริมาณ
$26,955,517 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
70%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
3%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 70.2%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.6%
$26,955,517 ปริมาณ
$26,955,517 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
$4,189,277 ปริมาณ
70%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,245,194 ปริมาณ
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,204,668 ปริมาณ
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,114,221 ปริมาณ
3%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,197,260 ปริมาณ
1%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,419,171 ปริมาณ
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,495,936 ปริมาณ
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
$1,326,081 ปริมาณ
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,736,206 ปริมาณ
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,456,873 ปริมาณ
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
$3,125,778 ปริมาณ
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
$3,276,964 ปริมาณ
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,168,288 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict and elevated energy prices have driven the market-implied 70.3% probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The April 2026 CPI print accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts and reinforcing the FOMC’s April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Strong labor market conditions and internal policy divisions, including the highest dissent count in decades, have further anchored trader consensus around a pause. Recent analyst revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing first cuts into late 2026 or 2027 align with these dynamics, while upcoming May and June inflation releases and FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts shaping implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,955,517วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict and elevated energy prices have driven the market-implied 70.3% probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The April 2026 CPI print accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts and reinforcing the FOMC’s April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Strong labor market conditions and internal policy divisions, including the highest dissent count in decades, have further anchored trader consensus around a pause. Recent analyst revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing first cuts into late 2026 or 2027 align with these dynamics, while upcoming May and June inflation releases and FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts shaping implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,955,517วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict and elevated energy prices have driven the market-implied 70.3% probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The April 2026 CPI print accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts and reinforcing the FOMC’s April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Strong labor market conditions and internal policy divisions, including the highest dissent count in decades, have further anchored trader consensus around a pause. Recent analyst revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing first cuts into late 2026 or 2027 align with these dynamics, while upcoming May and June inflation releases and FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts shaping implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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