Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflected in the 70.5% implied probability for no change. April CPI data showed headline inflation rising to 3.3%, with energy prices contributing over 40% of the increase and pushing core measures higher than expected, prompting the Fed to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April meeting. This has aligned market-implied odds with recent broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs, which now delay or eliminate 2026 easing amid resilient labor data and upside risks to prices. Upcoming FOMC communications and May inflation releases remain key catalysts that could reinforce or shift this pricing if downside surprises emerge.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วมีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
มีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 70.4%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.7%
$26,876,371 ปริมาณ
$26,876,371 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
70%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
3%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 70.4%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.7%
$26,876,371 ปริมาณ
$26,876,371 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
$4,187,506 ปริมาณ
70%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,244,508 ปริมาณ
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,203,687 ปริมาณ
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,113,761 ปริมาณ
3%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,194,808 ปริมาณ
1%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,415,811 ปริมาณ
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,484,611 ปริมาณ
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
$1,322,133 ปริมาณ
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,727,182 ปริมาณ
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,449,428 ปริมาณ
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
$3,115,579 ปริมาณ
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
$3,266,345 ปริมาณ
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,151,310 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflected in the 70.5% implied probability for no change. April CPI data showed headline inflation rising to 3.3%, with energy prices contributing over 40% of the increase and pushing core measures higher than expected, prompting the Fed to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April meeting. This has aligned market-implied odds with recent broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs, which now delay or eliminate 2026 easing amid resilient labor data and upside risks to prices. Upcoming FOMC communications and May inflation releases remain key catalysts that could reinforce or shift this pricing if downside surprises emerge.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,876,371วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflected in the 70.5% implied probability for no change. April CPI data showed headline inflation rising to 3.3%, with energy prices contributing over 40% of the increase and pushing core measures higher than expected, prompting the Fed to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April meeting. This has aligned market-implied odds with recent broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs, which now delay or eliminate 2026 easing amid resilient labor data and upside risks to prices. Upcoming FOMC communications and May inflation releases remain key catalysts that could reinforce or shift this pricing if downside surprises emerge.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,876,371วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflected in the 70.5% implied probability for no change. April CPI data showed headline inflation rising to 3.3%, with energy prices contributing over 40% of the increase and pushing core measures higher than expected, prompting the Fed to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through its April meeting. This has aligned market-implied odds with recent broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs, which now delay or eliminate 2026 easing amid resilient labor data and upside risks to prices. Upcoming FOMC communications and May inflation releases remain key catalysts that could reinforce or shift this pricing if downside surprises emerge.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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