Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 meeting, reinforcing trader consensus for no additional easing in 2026. Recent data releases and labor market resilience have tempered expectations for rate cuts, with market-implied odds now heavily favoring a prolonged pause as officials prioritize inflation risks over growth concerns. This positioning aligns with revised analyst forecasts from major brokerages that have delayed projected cuts into 2027, reflecting a higher neutral rate and cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment figures, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วมีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
มีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 70.5%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.7%
$26,894,858 ปริมาณ
$26,894,858 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
71%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
3%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
2%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 70.5%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.7%
$26,894,858 ปริมาณ
$26,894,858 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
$4,187,685 ปริมาณ
71%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,244,767 ปริมาณ
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,204,227 ปริมาณ
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,113,801 ปริมาณ
3%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,195,404 ปริมาณ
2%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,416,872 ปริมาณ
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,486,259 ปริมาณ
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
$1,322,162 ปริมาณ
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,728,786 ปริมาณ
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,451,665 ปริมาณ
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
$3,119,777 ปริมาณ
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
$3,270,425 ปริมาณ
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,153,384 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 meeting, reinforcing trader consensus for no additional easing in 2026. Recent data releases and labor market resilience have tempered expectations for rate cuts, with market-implied odds now heavily favoring a prolonged pause as officials prioritize inflation risks over growth concerns. This positioning aligns with revised analyst forecasts from major brokerages that have delayed projected cuts into 2027, reflecting a higher neutral rate and cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment figures, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,894,858วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 meeting, reinforcing trader consensus for no additional easing in 2026. Recent data releases and labor market resilience have tempered expectations for rate cuts, with market-implied odds now heavily favoring a prolonged pause as officials prioritize inflation risks over growth concerns. This positioning aligns with revised analyst forecasts from major brokerages that have delayed projected cuts into 2027, reflecting a higher neutral rate and cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment figures, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,894,858วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have driven the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 meeting, reinforcing trader consensus for no additional easing in 2026. Recent data releases and labor market resilience have tempered expectations for rate cuts, with market-implied odds now heavily favoring a prolonged pause as officials prioritize inflation risks over growth concerns. This positioning aligns with revised analyst forecasts from major brokerages that have delayed projected cuts into 2027, reflecting a higher neutral rate and cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing uncertainty. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh CPI and employment figures, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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