Elevated inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions have anchored market-implied odds of zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026 near 71 percent, with traders seeing the Fed holding its 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent target range through year-end. Recent April CPI and PPI releases, showing headline inflation accelerating to 3.8 percent and 6 percent respectively, reinforced this view alongside resilient labor market data that has kept unemployment near 4.3 percent. Major brokerages including BofA Global Research have revised forecasts to no easing until 2027, aligning with the CME FedWatch tool's pricing of limited probability for even a single 25-basis-point reduction. The next FOMC meetings and May economic releases will test whether cooling core measures can shift this consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วมีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
มีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 71.0%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.7%
$26,865,647 ปริมาณ
$26,865,647 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
71%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
3%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
2%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 71.0%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.7%
$26,865,647 ปริมาณ
$26,865,647 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
$4,184,872 ปริมาณ
71%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,244,245 ปริมาณ
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,203,687 ปริมาณ
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,113,699 ปริมาณ
3%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,194,330 ปริมาณ
2%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,415,380 ปริมาณ
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,483,858 ปริมาณ
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
$1,322,077 ปริมาณ
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,726,547 ปริมาณ
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,449,310 ปริมาณ
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
$3,115,562 ปริมาณ
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
$3,262,997 ปริมาณ
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,149,242 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions have anchored market-implied odds of zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026 near 71 percent, with traders seeing the Fed holding its 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent target range through year-end. Recent April CPI and PPI releases, showing headline inflation accelerating to 3.8 percent and 6 percent respectively, reinforced this view alongside resilient labor market data that has kept unemployment near 4.3 percent. Major brokerages including BofA Global Research have revised forecasts to no easing until 2027, aligning with the CME FedWatch tool's pricing of limited probability for even a single 25-basis-point reduction. The next FOMC meetings and May economic releases will test whether cooling core measures can shift this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,865,647วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions have anchored market-implied odds of zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026 near 71 percent, with traders seeing the Fed holding its 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent target range through year-end. Recent April CPI and PPI releases, showing headline inflation accelerating to 3.8 percent and 6 percent respectively, reinforced this view alongside resilient labor market data that has kept unemployment near 4.3 percent. Major brokerages including BofA Global Research have revised forecasts to no easing until 2027, aligning with the CME FedWatch tool's pricing of limited probability for even a single 25-basis-point reduction. The next FOMC meetings and May economic releases will test whether cooling core measures can shift this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,865,647วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions have anchored market-implied odds of zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026 near 71 percent, with traders seeing the Fed holding its 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent target range through year-end. Recent April CPI and PPI releases, showing headline inflation accelerating to 3.8 percent and 6 percent respectively, reinforced this view alongside resilient labor market data that has kept unemployment near 4.3 percent. Major brokerages including BofA Global Research have revised forecasts to no easing until 2027, aligning with the CME FedWatch tool's pricing of limited probability for even a single 25-basis-point reduction. The next FOMC meetings and May economic releases will test whether cooling core measures can shift this consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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