**Clear skies and northerly winds following a frontal passage are the dominant drivers positioning the 66-67°F range as the market favorite (46% implied probability) for NYC’s lowest temperature on August 29, 2026.** Official National Weather Service and model guidance indicate mostly sunny conditions on the 29th with highs in the lower 80s, followed by clear to mostly clear skies overnight. Light north-to-southwest winds of 5–10 mph will allow efficient radiative cooling under low humidity, with dew points expected to fall into the low-to-mid 60s. This setup favors an overnight minimum in the mid-to-upper 60s, consistent with the 66°F point forecast in multiple runs. The 68-69°F bin (24%) reflects scenarios with slightly less cooling from lingering moisture or lighter winds, while the 64-65°F outcome (21.5%) accounts for potential stronger radiational cooling if skies remain perfectly clear. Lower bins (62°F and below) carry reduced odds absent an unexpected cold surge, and warmer outcomes (70°F+) are discounted by the established cooling trend. Recent observations from August 28 confirm the pattern: partly sunny skies, highs in the mid-80s, and a shift to northerly flow that has already lowered dew points and reduced cloud cover. Updated NWS zone forecasts emphasize mid-60s lows for the night of the 29th, with no major model disagreements noted in the latest guidance. The market’s concentration around 66–69°F reflects trader alignment with this consensus forecast as resolution approaches.