Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 82% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, election, fueled by late April polls from Quaest, Vox Brasil, and Apex/Futura showing him leading first-round scenarios by 12–16 points over Fernando Haddad (PT), with 53–54% in simulated second-round matchups. His approval ratings hover at 54–64%, bolstered by perceived effective governance amid ongoing infrastructure projects. Haddad trails at around 26–33% as the primary left-wing challenger, while Kim Kataguiri (5.1%) garners niche liberal support per polls at 3–5%; lower probabilities for Márcio França and Erika Hilton reflect minimal polling traction. With six months until voting, shifts could arise from economic trends or campaign gaffes, but incumbency and consistent leads anchor current positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วTarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 9.6%
Kim Kataguiri 4.9%
Márcio França 2.0%
$20,425 ปริมาณ
$20,425 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
83%
Fernando Haddad
10%
Kim Kataguiri
5%
Márcio França
2%
Erika Hilton
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 9.6%
Kim Kataguiri 4.9%
Márcio França 2.0%
$20,425 ปริมาณ
$20,425 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$10,723 ปริมาณ
83%
Fernando Haddad
$3,045 ปริมาณ
10%
Kim Kataguiri
$1,581 ปริมาณ
5%
Márcio França
$2,190 ปริมาณ
2%
Erika Hilton
$2,885 ปริมาณ
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 82% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, election, fueled by late April polls from Quaest, Vox Brasil, and Apex/Futura showing him leading first-round scenarios by 12–16 points over Fernando Haddad (PT), with 53–54% in simulated second-round matchups. His approval ratings hover at 54–64%, bolstered by perceived effective governance amid ongoing infrastructure projects. Haddad trails at around 26–33% as the primary left-wing challenger, while Kim Kataguiri (5.1%) garners niche liberal support per polls at 3–5%; lower probabilities for Márcio França and Erika Hilton reflect minimal polling traction. With six months until voting, shifts could arise from economic trends or campaign gaffes, but incumbency and consistent leads anchor current positioning.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,425วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 82% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, election, fueled by late April polls from Quaest, Vox Brasil, and Apex/Futura showing him leading first-round scenarios by 12–16 points over Fernando Haddad (PT), with 53–54% in simulated second-round matchups. His approval ratings hover at 54–64%, bolstered by perceived effective governance amid ongoing infrastructure projects. Haddad trails at around 26–33% as the primary left-wing challenger, while Kim Kataguiri (5.1%) garners niche liberal support per polls at 3–5%; lower probabilities for Márcio França and Erika Hilton reflect minimal polling traction. With six months until voting, shifts could arise from economic trends or campaign gaffes, but incumbency and consistent leads anchor current positioning.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,425วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 82% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, election, fueled by late April polls from Quaest, Vox Brasil, and Apex/Futura showing him leading first-round scenarios by 12–16 points over Fernando Haddad (PT), with 53–54% in simulated second-round matchups. His approval ratings hover at 54–64%, bolstered by perceived effective governance amid ongoing infrastructure projects. Haddad trails at around 26–33% as the primary left-wing challenger, while Kim Kataguiri (5.1%) garners niche liberal support per polls at 3–5%; lower probabilities for Márcio França and Erika Hilton reflect minimal polling traction. With six months until voting, shifts could arise from economic trends or campaign gaffes, but incumbency and consistent leads anchor current positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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