Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor seeking re-election, maintains a dominant position in São Paulo’s October 4 first-round vote due to consistent double-digit leads in September polling from Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, and others, where he registers 44–55% support against Fernando Haddad’s 27–41%. Voter surveys show roughly 70% of respondents have finalized their choice, with Tarcísio drawing broad backing from evangelical, rural, and right-leaning segments. Withdrawals by figures such as Kim Kataguiri have consolidated the field and raised the prospect of an outright first-round win above the 50% threshold of valid votes. Minor candidates including Erika Hilton, Márcio França, and others remain below 2% in surveys. Trader consensus at 99% for Tarcísio reflects this polling stability, though shifts in turnout or late developments before election day could still alter the outcome.