Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91% implied probability against an Iranian agent being charged in the US by May 31, reflecting the absence of fresh Department of Justice indictments or FBI announcements targeting confirmed Iranian intelligence operatives in the past 30 days. The most recent high-profile case, the March 2026 conviction of Asif Merchant—a Pakistani linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps—for murder-for-hire in a foiled political assassination plot, predates the current resolution window and stemmed from earlier charges. April arrests of Iranian nationals for migrant smuggling—including one IRGC associate—and arms trafficking tied to Iran's Intelligence Ministry resulted in criminal complaints but not espionage-specific agent designations. Absent scheduled hearings, special counsel probes, or breaking diplomatic escalations, traders anticipate no qualifying federal action before the deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
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May 31, 2026
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May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91% implied probability against an Iranian agent being charged in the US by May 31, reflecting the absence of fresh Department of Justice indictments or FBI announcements targeting confirmed Iranian intelligence operatives in the past 30 days. The most recent high-profile case, the March 2026 conviction of Asif Merchant—a Pakistani linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps—for murder-for-hire in a foiled political assassination plot, predates the current resolution window and stemmed from earlier charges. April arrests of Iranian nationals for migrant smuggling—including one IRGC associate—and arms trafficking tied to Iran's Intelligence Ministry resulted in criminal complaints but not espionage-specific agent designations. Absent scheduled hearings, special counsel probes, or breaking diplomatic escalations, traders anticipate no qualifying federal action before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,194วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91% implied probability against an Iranian agent being charged in the US by May 31, reflecting the absence of fresh Department of Justice indictments or FBI announcements targeting confirmed Iranian intelligence operatives in the past 30 days. The most recent high-profile case, the March 2026 conviction of Asif Merchant—a Pakistani linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps—for murder-for-hire in a foiled political assassination plot, predates the current resolution window and stemmed from earlier charges. April arrests of Iranian nationals for migrant smuggling—including one IRGC associate—and arms trafficking tied to Iran's Intelligence Ministry resulted in criminal complaints but not espionage-specific agent designations. Absent scheduled hearings, special counsel probes, or breaking diplomatic escalations, traders anticipate no qualifying federal action before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,194วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91% implied probability against an Iranian agent being charged in the US by May 31, reflecting the absence of fresh Department of Justice indictments or FBI announcements targeting confirmed Iranian intelligence operatives in the past 30 days. The most recent high-profile case, the March 2026 conviction of Asif Merchant—a Pakistani linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps—for murder-for-hire in a foiled political assassination plot, predates the current resolution window and stemmed from earlier charges. April arrests of Iranian nationals for migrant smuggling—including one IRGC associate—and arms trafficking tied to Iran's Intelligence Ministry resulted in criminal complaints but not espionage-specific agent designations. Absent scheduled hearings, special counsel probes, or breaking diplomatic escalations, traders anticipate no qualifying federal action before the deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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