Official National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Dolly, currently at 35-40 kt sustained winds far east of the Leeward Islands, will experience little intensification before degenerating into a tropical wave this weekend amid strong wind shear and fast westward motion. Disorganized convection without banding features, combined with El Niño-enhanced shear, supports the 93% market-implied odds against hurricane strength (74 kt+). Model consensus reinforces weakening to post-tropical status by Saturday, consistent with historical analogs in similarly hostile environments. Traders assign low probability to rapid organization, though unexpected shear relaxation or improved upper-level support could allow marginal strengthening before landfall effects.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
7% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 3, 2026
7% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 3, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Official National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Dolly, currently at 35-40 kt sustained winds far east of the Leeward Islands, will experience little intensification before degenerating into a tropical wave this weekend amid strong wind shear and fast westward motion. Disorganized convection without banding features, combined with El Niño-enhanced shear, supports the 93% market-implied odds against hurricane strength (74 kt+). Model consensus reinforces weakening to post-tropical status by Saturday, consistent with historical analogs in similarly hostile environments. Traders assign low probability to rapid organization, though unexpected shear relaxation or improved upper-level support could allow marginal strengthening before landfall effects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$95วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Official National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Dolly, currently at 35-40 kt sustained winds far east of the Leeward Islands, will experience little intensification before degenerating into a tropical wave this weekend amid strong wind shear and fast westward motion. Disorganized convection without banding features, combined with El Niño-enhanced shear, supports the 93% market-implied odds against hurricane strength (74 kt+). Model consensus reinforces weakening to post-tropical status by Saturday, consistent with historical analogs in similarly hostile environments. Traders assign low probability to rapid organization, though unexpected shear relaxation or improved upper-level support could allow marginal strengthening before landfall effects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$95วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Official National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Dolly, currently at 35-40 kt sustained winds far east of the Leeward Islands, will experience little intensification before degenerating into a tropical wave this weekend amid strong wind shear and fast westward motion. Disorganized convection without banding features, combined with El Niño-enhanced shear, supports the 93% market-implied odds against hurricane strength (74 kt+). Model consensus reinforces weakening to post-tropical status by Saturday, consistent with historical analogs in similarly hostile environments. Traders assign low probability to rapid organization, though unexpected shear relaxation or improved upper-level support could allow marginal strengthening before landfall effects.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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