The renewed White House effort on August 7 to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook—via an August 5 letter citing 2021 mortgage fraud allegations and giving her until August 26 to respond—serves as the primary catalyst shaping trader sentiment on her departure timeline. This follows the Supreme Court’s 5-4 June 29 ruling allowing Cook to remain in her 2038 term while litigation continues, underscoring the legal “for cause” protections under the Federal Reserve Act and the emphasis on central bank independence. Markets price in low near-term odds of swift removal due to ongoing court challenges and the Fed’s institutional safeguards, though the process could accelerate if the administration prevails in follow-on proceedings or if Cook steps down amid pressure. Key upcoming catalysts include her formal response, potential district court rulings, and the September FOMC meeting, all of which could shift implied probabilities around monetary policy continuity and Treasury yield expectations.