This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest counterproposal on May 10—deeming it "totally unacceptable" for demanding a shorter nuclear moratorium than 20 years, an end to the Strait of Hormuz blockade without facility commitments, and partial waterway controls—has placed ceasefire talks on "life support" amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war. Negotiations, underway since April 2025, seek a nuclear deal surpassing the JCPOA, with US priorities including uranium enrichment cessation, ballistic missile limits, and full dismantlement, clashing against Tehran's push for sanctions relief and reduced restrictions. Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping today may introduce Chinese diplomatic leverage, while Pentagon reviews signal risks of resumed airstrikes before the May 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest counterproposal on May 10—deeming it "totally unacceptable" for demanding a shorter nuclear moratorium than 20 years, an end to the Strait of Hormuz blockade without facility commitments, and partial waterway controls—has placed ceasefire talks on "life support" amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war. Negotiations, underway since April 2025, seek a nuclear deal surpassing the JCPOA, with US priorities including uranium enrichment cessation, ballistic missile limits, and full dismantlement, clashing against Tehran's push for sanctions relief and reduced restrictions. Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping today may introduce Chinese diplomatic leverage, while Pentagon reviews signal risks of resumed airstrikes before the May 31 deadline.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
May 12 2026
U.S. officials reiterate that the blockade of Iranian ships will remain until a peace deal is signed, confirming no imminent sanction relief and anchoring the
Oil Sanction Relief dips to 14%3%
U.S. officials reiterate that the blockade of Iranian ships will remain until a peace deal is signed, confirming no imminent sanction relief and anchoring the
May 11 2026
Senate Democrats publicly condemn Trump’s broader sanctions‑relief moves for Russia, linking them to Iran and underscoring political resistance to any oil‑sanction easing
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 17%21%
Senate Democrats publicly condemn Trump’s broader sanctions‑relief moves for Russia, linking them to Iran and underscoring political resistance to any oil‑sanction easing
May 11 2026
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 14%3%
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its lowest level
May 10 2026
Al Jazeera quoted Trump saying the United States will not allow Iran to reach enriched uranium, a definitive public rejection of any continuation, driving the
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 3%9%
Al Jazeera quoted Trump saying the United States will not allow Iran to reach enriched uranium, a definitive public rejection of any continuation, driving the
May 10 2026
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s response that included the unfreezing of Iranian assets, describing the proposal “totally unacceptable” and warning the cease‑fire is on the brink
Unfreeze Iranian Assets drops to 17%14%
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s response that included the unfreezing of Iranian assets, describing the proposal “totally unacceptable” and warning the cease‑fire is on the brink
May 7 2026
Reuters notes the U.S. Treasury will not renew the Iranian oil sanctions waiver after April 19, reinforcing the blockade and pushing the
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 38%4%
Reuters notes the U.S. Treasury will not renew the Iranian oil sanctions waiver after April 19, reinforcing the blockade and pushing the
May 6 2026
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally in sanction‑relief odds
May 6 2026
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 12%8%
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued enrichment, further dampening “yes” odds (temporary spike from speculation)
May 5 2026
Vice President JD Vance claims “a lot of progress” in US‑Iran talks, but markets remain skeptical, causing the
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%5%
Vice President JD Vance claims “a lot of progress” in US‑Iran talks, but markets remain skeptical, causing the
May 5 2026
Trump’s “life‑support” comment on the cease‑fire after Iran’s latest proposal, which demanded unfreezing of assets, signals U.S.
Unfreeze Iranian Assets jumps to 25%11%
reluctance to honor that part of the deal
May 4 2026
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%3%
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if enrichment stopped, reinforcing market belief that continuation was off the table
Apr 29 2026
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 19%18%
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal agreement that could include oil‑sanction relief
Apr 21 2026
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s
Unfreeze Iranian Assets rises to 21%1%
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s asset‑unfreeze provisions
Apr 21 2026
Trump posts on Truth Social extending the US‑Iran cease‑fire;
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 37%3%
traders had placed a $430 million short on Brent minutes before the announcement, indicating expectations of falling oil
Apr 19 2026
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly stabilises the market at low levels
Apr 17 2026
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 4%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned tolls and prompting a sharp drop in “Yes” odds
Apr 17 2026
Trump told Reuters Iran had agreed to let Washington retrieve its uranium, but Tehran quickly denied any such deal, underscoring that no agreement on continued enrichment existed
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 7%4%
Trump told Reuters Iran had agreed to let Washington retrieve its uranium, but Tehran quickly denied any such deal, underscoring that no agreement on continued enrichment existed
Apr 17 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”;
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Trump immediately tweets praise, suggesting a de‑escalation that could lead to sanction easing
Apr 14 2026
Four Iran‑linked vessels are observed transiting the Strait despite the U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 8%1%
blockade, showing limited enforcement and keeping fee‑related expectations alive
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 9%22%
naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz on Truth Social, warning Tehran against imposing tolls
Apr 10 2026
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%11%
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening concerns that sanctions relief will not be renewed
Apr 8 2026
President Donald Trump announces a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire that will lift all sanctions, remove blockades and release all frozen Iranian assets abroad
Unfreeze Iranian Assets plunges to 20%28%
President Donald Trump announces a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire that will lift all sanctions, remove blockades and release all frozen Iranian assets abroad
Apr 8 2026
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 31%16%
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could trigger a “Yes” outcome
Apr 8 2026
US‑Iran cease‑fire talks announced, with President Trump saying Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and the US would remove past nuclear material
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
US‑Iran cease‑fire talks announced, with President Trump saying Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and the US would remove past nuclear material
Mar 20 2026
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 25%25%
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140 million barrels of stranded oil
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest counterproposal on May 10—deeming it "totally unacceptable" for demanding a shorter nuclear moratorium than 20 years, an end to the Strait of Hormuz blockade without facility commitments, and partial waterway controls—has placed ceasefire talks on "life support" amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war. Negotiations, underway since April 2025, seek a nuclear deal surpassing the JCPOA, with US priorities including uranium enrichment cessation, ballistic missile limits, and full dismantlement, clashing against Tehran's push for sanctions relief and reduced restrictions. Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping today may introduce Chinese diplomatic leverage, while Pentagon reviews signal risks of resumed airstrikes before the May 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest counterproposal on May 10—deeming it "totally unacceptable" for demanding a shorter nuclear moratorium than 20 years, an end to the Strait of Hormuz blockade without facility commitments, and partial waterway controls—has placed ceasefire talks on "life support" amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war. Negotiations, underway since April 2025, seek a nuclear deal surpassing the JCPOA, with US priorities including uranium enrichment cessation, ballistic missile limits, and full dismantlement, clashing against Tehran's push for sanctions relief and reduced restrictions. Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping today may introduce Chinese diplomatic leverage, while Pentagon reviews signal risks of resumed airstrikes before the May 31 deadline.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
May 12 2026
U.S. officials reiterate that the blockade of Iranian ships will remain until a peace deal is signed, confirming no imminent sanction relief and anchoring the
Oil Sanction Relief dips to 14%3%
U.S. officials reiterate that the blockade of Iranian ships will remain until a peace deal is signed, confirming no imminent sanction relief and anchoring the
May 11 2026
Senate Democrats publicly condemn Trump’s broader sanctions‑relief moves for Russia, linking them to Iran and underscoring political resistance to any oil‑sanction easing
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 17%21%
Senate Democrats publicly condemn Trump’s broader sanctions‑relief moves for Russia, linking them to Iran and underscoring political resistance to any oil‑sanction easing
May 11 2026
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 14%3%
Trump reiterates that the month‑old cease‑fire is now on “massive life support,” again emphasizing that asset‑unfreeze demands remain unmet, pushing the probability down to its lowest level
May 10 2026
Al Jazeera quoted Trump saying the United States will not allow Iran to reach enriched uranium, a definitive public rejection of any continuation, driving the
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 3%9%
Al Jazeera quoted Trump saying the United States will not allow Iran to reach enriched uranium, a definitive public rejection of any continuation, driving the
May 10 2026
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s response that included the unfreezing of Iranian assets, describing the proposal “totally unacceptable” and warning the cease‑fire is on the brink
Unfreeze Iranian Assets drops to 17%14%
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s response that included the unfreezing of Iranian assets, describing the proposal “totally unacceptable” and warning the cease‑fire is on the brink
May 7 2026
Reuters notes the U.S. Treasury will not renew the Iranian oil sanctions waiver after April 19, reinforcing the blockade and pushing the
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 38%4%
Reuters notes the U.S. Treasury will not renew the Iranian oil sanctions waiver after April 19, reinforcing the blockade and pushing the
May 6 2026
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Reports emerge that the Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran surrendering enriched uranium, sparking a brief rally in sanction‑relief odds
May 6 2026
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 12%8%
CNN reported US‑Iran negotiators were close to a framework that required a moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than 10 years, with no mention of allowing continued enrichment, further dampening “yes” odds (temporary spike from speculation)
May 5 2026
Vice President JD Vance claims “a lot of progress” in US‑Iran talks, but markets remain skeptical, causing the
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%5%
Vice President JD Vance claims “a lot of progress” in US‑Iran talks, but markets remain skeptical, causing the
May 5 2026
Trump’s “life‑support” comment on the cease‑fire after Iran’s latest proposal, which demanded unfreezing of assets, signals U.S.
Unfreeze Iranian Assets jumps to 25%11%
reluctance to honor that part of the deal
May 4 2026
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%3%
Axios report (cited by the Jerusalem Post) disclosed Iran’s 15‑year enrichment moratorium as part of a proposed deal, while Trump emphasized the US would lift sanctions only if enrichment stopped, reinforcing market belief that continuation was off the table
Apr 29 2026
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 19%18%
Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir announces Pakistan will mediate direct US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, and the US publicly praises the mediation, raising hopes of a formal agreement that could include oil‑sanction relief
Apr 21 2026
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s
Unfreeze Iranian Assets rises to 21%1%
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seizes ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to maintain its naval blockade and casting doubt on the cease‑fire’s asset‑unfreeze provisions
Apr 21 2026
Trump posts on Truth Social extending the US‑Iran cease‑fire;
Oil Sanction Relief rises to 37%3%
traders had placed a $430 million short on Brent minutes before the announcement, indicating expectations of falling oil
Apr 19 2026
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly
Iran’s IRGC announces a full, indefinite shutdown of the Strait, reversing the April 17 opening and reviving the prospect of a fee‑based, Iran‑controlled passage, which briefly stabilises the market at low levels
Apr 17 2026
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 4%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait “completely open” for commercial ships for the remainder of the cease‑fire, effectively cancelling the planned tolls and prompting a sharp drop in “Yes” odds
Apr 17 2026
Trump told Reuters Iran had agreed to let Washington retrieve its uranium, but Tehran quickly denied any such deal, underscoring that no agreement on continued enrichment existed
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 7%4%
Trump told Reuters Iran had agreed to let Washington retrieve its uranium, but Tehran quickly denied any such deal, underscoring that no agreement on continued enrichment existed
Apr 17 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declares the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”;
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 34%20%
Trump immediately tweets praise, suggesting a de‑escalation that could lead to sanction easing
Apr 14 2026
Four Iran‑linked vessels are observed transiting the Strait despite the U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 8%1%
blockade, showing limited enforcement and keeping fee‑related expectations alive
Apr 12 2026
President Donald Trump announces a U.S.
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 9%22%
naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz on Truth Social, warning Tehran against imposing tolls
Apr 10 2026
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 14%11%
Reuters reports the Trump administration is set to extend a Russian‑oil waiver and, crucially, signals the imminent expiration of the Iranian‑oil waiver on April 19, heightening concerns that sanctions relief will not be renewed
Apr 8 2026
President Donald Trump announces a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire that will lift all sanctions, remove blockades and release all frozen Iranian assets abroad
Unfreeze Iranian Assets plunges to 20%28%
President Donald Trump announces a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire that will lift all sanctions, remove blockades and release all frozen Iranian assets abroad
Apr 8 2026
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 31%16%
Iran proposes $1‑per‑barrel Bitcoin toll (up to $2 million per super‑tanker) for Hormuz transit during a two‑week U.S.–Iran truce, signalling a costly fee regime that could trigger a “Yes” outcome
Apr 8 2026
US‑Iran cease‑fire talks announced, with President Trump saying Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and the US would remove past nuclear material
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
US‑Iran cease‑fire talks announced, with President Trump saying Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and the US would remove past nuclear material
Mar 20 2026
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 25%25%
U.S. Treasury issues a 30‑day General License U authorizing transactions for Iranian‑origin crude already on‑board vessels, framed as a market‑stabilising step to unlock ~140 million barrels of stranded oil
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Ang "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 4 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Oil Sanction Relief" sa 14%, sinusundan ng "Unfreeze Iranian Assets" sa 14%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 14¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 14% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.
Sa ngayon, ang "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" ay naka-generate ng $957.6K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Apr 29, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.
Para mag-trade sa "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?," i-browse ang 4 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.
Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" ay "Oil Sanction Relief" sa 14%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 14% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Unfreeze Iranian Assets" sa 14%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.
Ang mga resolution rules para sa "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.
Oo. Hindi mo kailangang mag-trade para manatiling informed. Ang pahinang ito ay nagsisilbing live tracker para sa "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?." Nag-a-update ang outcome probabilities sa real-time habang pumasok ang mga bagong trade. Maaari mong i-bookmark ang pahinang ito at tingnan ang comments section para makita kung ano ang sinasabi ng ibang mga trader. Maaari mo ring gamitin ang time-range filters sa chart para makita kung paano nagbago ang odds sa paglipas ng panahon. Isang libre, real-time na bintana ito sa kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.
Ang Polymarket odds ay itinatakda ng mga tunay na trader na naglalagay ng tunay na pera sa kanilang mga paniniwala, na may tendensiyang maglabas ng mga tumpak na prediksiyon. Sa $957.6K na na-trade sa "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?," pinagsasama-sama ng mga presyong ito ang kolektibong kaalaman at conviction ng libu-libong kalahok — na kadalasang mas mahusay kaysa sa mga poll, expert forecast, at tradisyonal na survey. Ang mga prediction market tulad ng Polymarket ay may malakas na track record ng accuracy, lalo na habang papalapit ang mga event sa kanilang resolution date. Halimbawa, ang Polymarket ay may one month accuracy score na 94%. Para sa pinakabagong stats sa prediction accuracy ng Polymarket, bisitahin ang accuracy page sa Polymarket.
Para ilagay ang iyong unang trade sa "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?," mag-sign up para sa libreng Polymarket account at i-fund ito gamit ang crypto, credit o debit card, o bank transfer. Kapag na-fund na ang iyong account, bumalik sa pahinang ito, piliin ang outcome na gusto mong i-trade, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bago ka sa prediction markets, i-click ang "How it works" link sa itaas ng anumang Polymarket page para sa mabilis na step-by-step walkthrough kung paano gumagana ang trading.
Sa Polymarket, ang presyo ng bawat outcome ay kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Ang presyong 14¢ para sa "Oil Sanction Relief" sa "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" market ay nangangahulugang kolektibong naniniwala ang mga trader na may halos 14% na tsansa na ang "Oil Sanction Relief" ang magiging tamang resulta. Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares sa 14¢ at tama ang outcome, makakatanggap ka ng $1.00 per share — isang kita na 86¢ per share. Kung mali, ang mga share na iyon ay nagkakahalaga ng $0.
Ang "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" market ay naka-schedule na mag-resolve sa o bandang May 31, 2026. Ibig sabihin ang trading ay mananatiling bukas at patuloy na magbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon hanggang sa petsang iyon. Ang eksaktong timing ng resolution ay nakadepende sa kung kailan magiging available ang opisyal na resulta, gaya ng nakabalangkas sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito.
Ang "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" market ay may isang aktibong komunidad ng 150 mga komento kung saan nagbabahagi ang mga trader ng kanilang analysis, nag-debate ng mga outcome, at pinag-uusapan ang mga breaking development. Mag-scroll pababa sa comments section sa ibaba para basahin kung ano ang iniisip ng ibang kalahok. Maaari mo ring i-filter ayon sa "Top Holders" para makita kung saan nakaposisyon ang mga pinakamalaking trader ng market, o tingnan ang "Activity" tab para sa real-time feed ng mga trade.
Ang Polymarket ang pinakamalaking prediction market sa mundo, kung saan maaari kang manatiling informed at kumita mula sa iyong kaalaman sa mga real-world events. Bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares sa mga outcome para sa mga paksang mula pulitika at eleksyon hanggang crypto, finance, sports, tech, at kultura, kasama ang mga market tulad ng "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?." Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities na sinusuportahan ng financial conviction, na kadalasang nagbibigay ng mas mabilis at mas tumpak na signal kaysa sa mga poll, pundit, o tradisyonal na survey.
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