The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold the overnight rate at 2.25 percent, following three prior pauses, underpins the 96.2 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 meeting. Weak domestic growth, with GDP contracting in late 2025 and unemployment near 6.5–7 percent, is offset by upside inflation risks from elevated energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict and U.S. tariff uncertainty. Governor Tiff Macklem’s post-meeting comments emphasized looking through near-term price spikes while remaining vigilant against persistent inflation, keeping the policy stance data-dependent. Traders price in this balanced outlook, with the low probabilities assigned to hikes or cuts reflecting limited scope for immediate action ahead of the next Monetary Policy Report in July. A sharper rise in core inflation or unexpected deterioration in labor data could still prompt a reassessment before June.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change 96.2%
Increase 3.0%
25 bps decrease 1.3%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,429 Обс.
$26,429 Обс.
Jun 10, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
96%
Increase
3%
No change 96.2%
Increase 3.0%
25 bps decrease 1.3%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,429 Обс.
$26,429 Обс.
Jun 10, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$4,584 Обс.
1%
25 bps decrease
$4,363 Обс.
1%
No change
$9,472 Обс.
96%
Increase
$8,011 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold the overnight rate at 2.25 percent, following three prior pauses, underpins the 96.2 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 meeting. Weak domestic growth, with GDP contracting in late 2025 and unemployment near 6.5–7 percent, is offset by upside inflation risks from elevated energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict and U.S. tariff uncertainty. Governor Tiff Macklem’s post-meeting comments emphasized looking through near-term price spikes while remaining vigilant against persistent inflation, keeping the policy stance data-dependent. Traders price in this balanced outlook, with the low probabilities assigned to hikes or cuts reflecting limited scope for immediate action ahead of the next Monetary Policy Report in July. A sharper rise in core inflation or unexpected deterioration in labor data could still prompt a reassessment before June.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,429Дата завершення
Jun 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold the overnight rate at 2.25 percent, following three prior pauses, underpins the 96.2 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 meeting. Weak domestic growth, with GDP contracting in late 2025 and unemployment near 6.5–7 percent, is offset by upside inflation risks from elevated energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict and U.S. tariff uncertainty. Governor Tiff Macklem’s post-meeting comments emphasized looking through near-term price spikes while remaining vigilant against persistent inflation, keeping the policy stance data-dependent. Traders price in this balanced outlook, with the low probabilities assigned to hikes or cuts reflecting limited scope for immediate action ahead of the next Monetary Policy Report in July. A sharper rise in core inflation or unexpected deterioration in labor data could still prompt a reassessment before June.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$26,429Дата завершення
Jun 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold the overnight rate at 2.25 percent, following three prior pauses, underpins the 96.2 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 meeting. Weak domestic growth, with GDP contracting in late 2025 and unemployment near 6.5–7 percent, is offset by upside inflation risks from elevated energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict and U.S. tariff uncertainty. Governor Tiff Macklem’s post-meeting comments emphasized looking through near-term price spikes while remaining vigilant against persistent inflation, keeping the policy stance data-dependent. Traders price in this balanced outlook, with the low probabilities assigned to hikes or cuts reflecting limited scope for immediate action ahead of the next Monetary Policy Report in July. A sharper rise in core inflation or unexpected deterioration in labor data could still prompt a reassessment before June.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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