Lula holds an 86.5% implied probability of finishing first in Amazonas in the October 4 first round, reflecting regional polling that shows him ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by nine points locally even as national surveys remain tighter. Recent Instituto Action data in Amazonas gave Lula 46% to Bolsonaro’s 37%, consistent with PT strength in the Northern region’s larger electorates such as Amazonas and Pará. Bolsonaro’s PL campaign has gained ground elsewhere in the North but trails in these two states that together represent over half the region’s voters. Lower-probability options such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register in single digits nationally and show even less traction in state-specific surveys, while Lula’s incumbency, running mate Geraldo Alckmin, and recent PT convention activities reinforce his position ahead of the vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLula 87%
Flavio Bolsonaro 13%
Renan Santos <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
87%
Flavio Bolsonaro
13%
Renan Santos
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Zema
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 87%
Flavio Bolsonaro 13%
Renan Santos <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$3,076 Обс.
87%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,297 Обс.
13%
Renan Santos
$414 Обс.
1%
Clariana Barao
$412 Обс.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$376 Обс.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$341 Обс.
<1%
Zema
$402 Обс.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$566 Обс.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$421 Обс.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$566 Обс.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$461 Обс.
<1%
Samara
$351 Обс.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$353 Обс.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds an 86.5% implied probability of finishing first in Amazonas in the October 4 first round, reflecting regional polling that shows him ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by nine points locally even as national surveys remain tighter. Recent Instituto Action data in Amazonas gave Lula 46% to Bolsonaro’s 37%, consistent with PT strength in the Northern region’s larger electorates such as Amazonas and Pará. Bolsonaro’s PL campaign has gained ground elsewhere in the North but trails in these two states that together represent over half the region’s voters. Lower-probability options such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register in single digits nationally and show even less traction in state-specific surveys, while Lula’s incumbency, running mate Geraldo Alckmin, and recent PT convention activities reinforce his position ahead of the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Обсяг
$9,038Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds an 86.5% implied probability of finishing first in Amazonas in the October 4 first round, reflecting regional polling that shows him ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by nine points locally even as national surveys remain tighter. Recent Instituto Action data in Amazonas gave Lula 46% to Bolsonaro’s 37%, consistent with PT strength in the Northern region’s larger electorates such as Amazonas and Pará. Bolsonaro’s PL campaign has gained ground elsewhere in the North but trails in these two states that together represent over half the region’s voters. Lower-probability options such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register in single digits nationally and show even less traction in state-specific surveys, while Lula’s incumbency, running mate Geraldo Alckmin, and recent PT convention activities reinforce his position ahead of the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$9,038Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds an 86.5% implied probability of finishing first in Amazonas in the October 4 first round, reflecting regional polling that shows him ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by nine points locally even as national surveys remain tighter. Recent Instituto Action data in Amazonas gave Lula 46% to Bolsonaro’s 37%, consistent with PT strength in the Northern region’s larger electorates such as Amazonas and Pará. Bolsonaro’s PL campaign has gained ground elsewhere in the North but trails in these two states that together represent over half the region’s voters. Lower-probability options such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register in single digits nationally and show even less traction in state-specific surveys, while Lula’s incumbency, running mate Geraldo Alckmin, and recent PT convention activities reinforce his position ahead of the vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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