Lula maintains a commanding lead in Bahia polls for first-round first place, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showing him at 58-61% against Flavio Bolsonaro at 23-24% and all other candidates in single digits. This positioning stems from the state's longstanding electoral patterns favoring the Workers' Party in the Northeast, combined with Lula's current approval ratings near 65% among Bahia voters and limited movement in undecided or blank ballots ahead of the October 4 vote. Polymarket traders reflect this consensus through pricing that accounts for the consistent double-digit margins and structural advantages in the region. Shifts could still occur via unexpectedly high turnout among opposition voters or unforeseen campaign developments in the final days, though such factors have not altered the trajectory in recent tracking.