Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a moderating southwest flow over Chicago on September 3, 2026, following peak heat indices above 100°F on September 1–2, with highs expected near 87–90°F amid increasing afternoon cloud cover and a slight chance of showers. This places the most probable outcomes in the upper 80s to low 90s, consistent with market-implied odds clustering on 88–91°F bins. Differentiation among these narrow ranges hinges on the precise timing and extent of cloudiness versus any convective heating, as well as boundary-layer moisture and weak steering winds that limit mixing. Above-normal late-summer warmth from persistent southerly flow keeps probabilities for sub-86°F outcomes low, while historical September 3 averages near 80°F underscore the current anomaly. Updated model runs and local observations ahead of the daily maximum will refine resolution criteria.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on September 3?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 3?
88-89°F 31%
90-91°F 25%
86-87°F 14%
92-93°F 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
13%
86-87°F
14%
88-89°F
31%
90-91°F
25%
92-93°F
14%
94-95°F
5%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
2%
88-89°F 31%
90-91°F 25%
86-87°F 14%
92-93°F 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
79°F or below
$10 Обс.
1%
80-81°F
$197 Обс.
<1%
82-83°F
$33 Обс.
1%
84-85°F
$590 Обс.
13%
86-87°F
$87 Обс.
14%
88-89°F
$468 Обс.
31%
90-91°F
$75 Обс.
25%
92-93°F
$232 Обс.
14%
94-95°F
$123 Обс.
5%
96-97°F
$31 Обс.
1%
98°F or higher
$10 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a moderating southwest flow over Chicago on September 3, 2026, following peak heat indices above 100°F on September 1–2, with highs expected near 87–90°F amid increasing afternoon cloud cover and a slight chance of showers. This places the most probable outcomes in the upper 80s to low 90s, consistent with market-implied odds clustering on 88–91°F bins. Differentiation among these narrow ranges hinges on the precise timing and extent of cloudiness versus any convective heating, as well as boundary-layer moisture and weak steering winds that limit mixing. Above-normal late-summer warmth from persistent southerly flow keeps probabilities for sub-86°F outcomes low, while historical September 3 averages near 80°F underscore the current anomaly. Updated model runs and local observations ahead of the daily maximum will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 1, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,856Дата завершення
Sep 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 3:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a moderating southwest flow over Chicago on September 3, 2026, following peak heat indices above 100°F on September 1–2, with highs expected near 87–90°F amid increasing afternoon cloud cover and a slight chance of showers. This places the most probable outcomes in the upper 80s to low 90s, consistent with market-implied odds clustering on 88–91°F bins. Differentiation among these narrow ranges hinges on the precise timing and extent of cloudiness versus any convective heating, as well as boundary-layer moisture and weak steering winds that limit mixing. Above-normal late-summer warmth from persistent southerly flow keeps probabilities for sub-86°F outcomes low, while historical September 3 averages near 80°F underscore the current anomaly. Updated model runs and local observations ahead of the daily maximum will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,856Дата завершення
Sep 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 3:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a moderating southwest flow over Chicago on September 3, 2026, following peak heat indices above 100°F on September 1–2, with highs expected near 87–90°F amid increasing afternoon cloud cover and a slight chance of showers. This places the most probable outcomes in the upper 80s to low 90s, consistent with market-implied odds clustering on 88–91°F bins. Differentiation among these narrow ranges hinges on the precise timing and extent of cloudiness versus any convective heating, as well as boundary-layer moisture and weak steering winds that limit mixing. Above-normal late-summer warmth from persistent southerly flow keeps probabilities for sub-86°F outcomes low, while historical September 3 averages near 80°F underscore the current anomaly. Updated model runs and local observations ahead of the daily maximum will refine resolution criteria.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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