**Trader consensus on the 30°C outcome for Hong Kong’s June 12 maximum temperature rests on Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observational data and multi-model consensus forecasts that converged on a peak of exactly 30°C under typical early-summer subtropical conditions.** June climatology places the long-term average daily maximum near 30–31°C, and regional numerical weather prediction outputs showed moderate humidity, scattered cloud cover, and limited convective activity consistent with this value. With the date now past, the market’s near-100% implied probability reflects traders’ confidence that official HKO station readings will confirm the 30°C threshold upon final verification. Realistic challenges remain limited to rare station-specific discrepancies or post-processing revisions, though current data show low likelihood of shifts outside the 30°C bin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?
30°C 99.9%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$220,173 Обс.
$220,173 Обс.
Jun 12, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
100%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
30°C 99.9%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$220,173 Обс.
$220,173 Обс.
Jun 12, 2026
23°C or below
$2,740 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$806 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$1,838 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$9,209 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$20,048 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$29,070 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$25,571 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$45,028 Обс.
100%
31°C
$35,994 Обс.
<1%
32°C
$28,565 Обс.
<1%
33°C or higher
$21,303 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on the 30°C outcome for Hong Kong’s June 12 maximum temperature rests on Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observational data and multi-model consensus forecasts that converged on a peak of exactly 30°C under typical early-summer subtropical conditions.**
June climatology places the long-term average daily maximum near 30–31°C, and regional numerical weather prediction outputs showed moderate humidity, scattered cloud cover, and limited convective activity consistent with this value. With the date now past, the market’s near-100% implied probability reflects traders’ confidence that official HKO station readings will confirm the 30°C threshold upon final verification.
Realistic challenges remain limited to rare station-specific discrepancies or post-processing revisions, though current data show low likelihood of shifts outside the 30°C bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$220,173Дата завершення
Jun 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on the 30°C outcome for Hong Kong’s June 12 maximum temperature rests on Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observational data and multi-model consensus forecasts that converged on a peak of exactly 30°C under typical early-summer subtropical conditions.**
June climatology places the long-term average daily maximum near 30–31°C, and regional numerical weather prediction outputs showed moderate humidity, scattered cloud cover, and limited convective activity consistent with this value. With the date now past, the market’s near-100% implied probability reflects traders’ confidence that official HKO station readings will confirm the 30°C threshold upon final verification.
Realistic challenges remain limited to rare station-specific discrepancies or post-processing revisions, though current data show low likelihood of shifts outside the 30°C bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$220,173Дата завершення
Jun 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the 30°C outcome for Hong Kong’s June 12 maximum temperature rests on Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observational data and multi-model consensus forecasts that converged on a peak of exactly 30°C under typical early-summer subtropical conditions.** June climatology places the long-term average daily maximum near 30–31°C, and regional numerical weather prediction outputs showed moderate humidity, scattered cloud cover, and limited convective activity consistent with this value. With the date now past, the market’s near-100% implied probability reflects traders’ confidence that official HKO station readings will confirm the 30°C threshold upon final verification. Realistic challenges remain limited to rare station-specific discrepancies or post-processing revisions, though current data show low likelihood of shifts outside the 30°C bin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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