Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of 27°C on May 15, 2026, establishing the dominant market-implied probability near certainty for that outcome. Persistent overcast skies, relative humidity of 83–89 percent, and widespread thundery showers linked to a low-pressure trough over the South China Sea suppressed daytime heating and prevented any spike toward the seasonal average of 28–29°C. These conditions aligned with climatological norms for mid-May under neutral ENSO influence, where cloud cover and convective activity typically moderate temperatures. The market’s strong consensus reflects traders’ confidence in the verified observational record rather than forecast uncertainty, though minor resolution adjustments could arise only from rare post-event data revisions by the Observatory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
27°C 99.8%
26°C <1%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
$292,592 Обс.
$292,592 Обс.
May 15, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
27°C 99.8%
26°C <1%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
$292,592 Обс.
$292,592 Обс.
May 15, 2026
19°C or below
$3,583 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$2,551 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$3,480 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$3,250 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$3,799 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$5,477 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$30,336 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$69,254 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$89,457 Обс.
100%
28°C
$45,405 Обс.
<1%
29°C or higher
$35,999 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of 27°C on May 15, 2026, establishing the dominant market-implied probability near certainty for that outcome. Persistent overcast skies, relative humidity of 83–89 percent, and widespread thundery showers linked to a low-pressure trough over the South China Sea suppressed daytime heating and prevented any spike toward the seasonal average of 28–29°C. These conditions aligned with climatological norms for mid-May under neutral ENSO influence, where cloud cover and convective activity typically moderate temperatures. The market’s strong consensus reflects traders’ confidence in the verified observational record rather than forecast uncertainty, though minor resolution adjustments could arise only from rare post-event data revisions by the Observatory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Обсяг
$292,592Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of 27°C on May 15, 2026, establishing the dominant market-implied probability near certainty for that outcome. Persistent overcast skies, relative humidity of 83–89 percent, and widespread thundery showers linked to a low-pressure trough over the South China Sea suppressed daytime heating and prevented any spike toward the seasonal average of 28–29°C. These conditions aligned with climatological norms for mid-May under neutral ENSO influence, where cloud cover and convective activity typically moderate temperatures. The market’s strong consensus reflects traders’ confidence in the verified observational record rather than forecast uncertainty, though minor resolution adjustments could arise only from rare post-event data revisions by the Observatory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$292,592Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of 27°C on May 15, 2026, establishing the dominant market-implied probability near certainty for that outcome. Persistent overcast skies, relative humidity of 83–89 percent, and widespread thundery showers linked to a low-pressure trough over the South China Sea suppressed daytime heating and prevented any spike toward the seasonal average of 28–29°C. These conditions aligned with climatological norms for mid-May under neutral ENSO influence, where cloud cover and convective activity typically moderate temperatures. The market’s strong consensus reflects traders’ confidence in the verified observational record rather than forecast uncertainty, though minor resolution adjustments could arise only from rare post-event data revisions by the Observatory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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