Trader consensus on Polymarket has rapidly converged on 25°C as the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 16, reflected in the 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of exactly 25°C under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limited afternoon heating. Recent surface data and satellite analysis showed temperatures aligning with mid-May climatological baselines, with no significant warm advection or urban heat-island intensification pushing readings higher. While earlier ensemble forecasts had allowed for slight upside potential, final verified measurements across multiple stations eliminated those scenarios. Revised station data or localized microclimate anomalies remain the only realistic pathways that could alter resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$302,807 Обс.
$302,807 Обс.
May 16, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$302,807 Обс.
$302,807 Обс.
May 16, 2026
19°C or below
$20,087 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$12,423 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$12,259 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$6,633 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$4,753 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$37,336 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$77,368 Обс.
100%
26°C
$43,033 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$39,653 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$25,261 Обс.
<1%
29°C or higher
$24,002 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has rapidly converged on 25°C as the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 16, reflected in the 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of exactly 25°C under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limited afternoon heating. Recent surface data and satellite analysis showed temperatures aligning with mid-May climatological baselines, with no significant warm advection or urban heat-island intensification pushing readings higher. While earlier ensemble forecasts had allowed for slight upside potential, final verified measurements across multiple stations eliminated those scenarios. Revised station data or localized microclimate anomalies remain the only realistic pathways that could alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Обсяг
$302,807Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has rapidly converged on 25°C as the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 16, reflected in the 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of exactly 25°C under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limited afternoon heating. Recent surface data and satellite analysis showed temperatures aligning with mid-May climatological baselines, with no significant warm advection or urban heat-island intensification pushing readings higher. While earlier ensemble forecasts had allowed for slight upside potential, final verified measurements across multiple stations eliminated those scenarios. Revised station data or localized microclimate anomalies remain the only realistic pathways that could alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$302,807Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has rapidly converged on 25°C as the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 16, reflected in the 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum of exactly 25°C under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that limited afternoon heating. Recent surface data and satellite analysis showed temperatures aligning with mid-May climatological baselines, with no significant warm advection or urban heat-island intensification pushing readings higher. While earlier ensemble forecasts had allowed for slight upside potential, final verified measurements across multiple stations eliminated those scenarios. Revised station data or localized microclimate anomalies remain the only realistic pathways that could alter resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання