Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daily maximum near 24°C in Madrid on May 18, supported by stable high-pressure conditions and moderate westerly flow that limit daytime heating. These model runs assign the greatest likelihood to 24°C, aligning with the market’s leading 46.5 percent implied probability and placing 23°C and 25°C as the next most probable outcomes. May climatology at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport shows typical highs of 22–24°C, so current guidance sits near normal. Traders weigh the latest model consensus ahead of verification, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust the observed peak by 1–2°C.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on May 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 18?
24°C 46%
23°C 30%
25°C 18%
22°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
8%
23°C
30%
24°C
46%
25°C
18%
26°C
4%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 46%
23°C 30%
25°C 18%
22°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
$399 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$796 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$1,310 Обс.
1%
21°C
$997 Обс.
2%
22°C
$1,167 Обс.
8%
23°C
$1,037 Обс.
30%
24°C
$774 Обс.
46%
25°C
$854 Обс.
18%
26°C
$269 Обс.
4%
27°C
$318 Обс.
1%
28°C or higher
$522 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daily maximum near 24°C in Madrid on May 18, supported by stable high-pressure conditions and moderate westerly flow that limit daytime heating. These model runs assign the greatest likelihood to 24°C, aligning with the market’s leading 46.5 percent implied probability and placing 23°C and 25°C as the next most probable outcomes. May climatology at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport shows typical highs of 22–24°C, so current guidance sits near normal. Traders weigh the latest model consensus ahead of verification, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust the observed peak by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$8,443Дата завершення
May 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daily maximum near 24°C in Madrid on May 18, supported by stable high-pressure conditions and moderate westerly flow that limit daytime heating. These model runs assign the greatest likelihood to 24°C, aligning with the market’s leading 46.5 percent implied probability and placing 23°C and 25°C as the next most probable outcomes. May climatology at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport shows typical highs of 22–24°C, so current guidance sits near normal. Traders weigh the latest model consensus ahead of verification, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust the observed peak by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$8,443Дата завершення
May 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDRecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daily maximum near 24°C in Madrid on May 18, supported by stable high-pressure conditions and moderate westerly flow that limit daytime heating. These model runs assign the greatest likelihood to 24°C, aligning with the market’s leading 46.5 percent implied probability and placing 23°C and 25°C as the next most probable outcomes. May climatology at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport shows typical highs of 22–24°C, so current guidance sits near normal. Traders weigh the latest model consensus ahead of verification, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust the observed peak by 1–2°C.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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