Recent model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and AEMET indicate Madrid will experience mostly clear skies and light southerly flow on May 19, supporting afternoon highs near 26–27 °C under a building subtropical ridge. This setup favors strong daytime heating over the Meseta, with surface temperatures amplified by the urban heat-island effect and low soil moisture typical after a dry spring. Minor uncertainties remain around the exact timing of any high-cloud development or slight wind shifts that could trim the peak by 1–2 °C, keeping the market closely balanced between those two outcomes. Official maximum-temperature verification will rely on the Retiro station reading, where historical May extremes have occasionally reached the upper 20s under comparable synoptic patterns.