Latest MetService and ensemble model guidance points to a daytime maximum of 14–15 °C for Wellington on May 18, aligning with the market’s 52.5 % and 34.5 % implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Mid-autumn conditions feature a climatological average high near 14 °C, with persistent southeasterly flow and Cook Strait mixing limiting stronger warming. No significant warm-air advection or clear-sky radiative heating is forecast to push readings into the 16 °C range, while a modest southerly change keeps the risk of falling to 13 °C or below relatively low. Updated model runs overnight have reinforced this narrow 13–15 °C window, tightening trader consensus around the current leading contracts ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
14°C 53%
15°C 35%
13°C 11.9%
16°C 3.9%
НОВЕ
$24,398 Обс.
НОВЕ
$24,398 Обс.
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
12%
14°C
53%
15°C
35%
16°C
4%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 53%
15°C 35%
13°C 11.9%
16°C 3.9%
НОВЕ
$24,398 Обс.
НОВЕ
$24,398 Обс.
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
$681 Обс.
<1%
9°C
$485 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$540 Обс.
<1%
11°C
$4,720 Обс.
<1%
12°C
$2,759 Обс.
2%
13°C
$3,481 Обс.
12%
14°C
$3,100 Обс.
53%
15°C
$2,240 Обс.
35%
16°C
$4,240 Обс.
4%
17°C
$1,188 Обс.
1%
18°C or higher
$965 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest MetService and ensemble model guidance points to a daytime maximum of 14–15 °C for Wellington on May 18, aligning with the market’s 52.5 % and 34.5 % implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Mid-autumn conditions feature a climatological average high near 14 °C, with persistent southeasterly flow and Cook Strait mixing limiting stronger warming. No significant warm-air advection or clear-sky radiative heating is forecast to push readings into the 16 °C range, while a modest southerly change keeps the risk of falling to 13 °C or below relatively low. Updated model runs overnight have reinforced this narrow 13–15 °C window, tightening trader consensus around the current leading contracts ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$24,398Дата завершення
May 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest MetService and ensemble model guidance points to a daytime maximum of 14–15 °C for Wellington on May 18, aligning with the market’s 52.5 % and 34.5 % implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Mid-autumn conditions feature a climatological average high near 14 °C, with persistent southeasterly flow and Cook Strait mixing limiting stronger warming. No significant warm-air advection or clear-sky radiative heating is forecast to push readings into the 16 °C range, while a modest southerly change keeps the risk of falling to 13 °C or below relatively low. Updated model runs overnight have reinforced this narrow 13–15 °C window, tightening trader consensus around the current leading contracts ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$24,398Дата завершення
May 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNLatest MetService and ensemble model guidance points to a daytime maximum of 14–15 °C for Wellington on May 18, aligning with the market’s 52.5 % and 34.5 % implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. Mid-autumn conditions feature a climatological average high near 14 °C, with persistent southeasterly flow and Cook Strait mixing limiting stronger warming. No significant warm-air advection or clear-sky radiative heating is forecast to push readings into the 16 °C range, while a modest southerly change keeps the risk of falling to 13 °C or below relatively low. Updated model runs overnight have reinforced this narrow 13–15 °C window, tightening trader consensus around the current leading contracts ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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