Recent forecast models from New Zealand’s MetService point to a maximum temperature of 14–15°C in Wellington on May 18, driven by a passing frontal system bringing southerly winds and increased cloud cover that will limit daytime heating. Mid-May climatology shows average highs near 14°C, with daily variability typically confined to a narrow 3–4°C range around that baseline unless a strong high-pressure ridge develops. Current ensemble guidance shows only modest warming potential from reduced cloud cover late in the period, keeping the market-implied probabilities concentrated on 14°C and 15°C. Updated model runs expected within the next 24–48 hours will refine wind and cloud forecasts ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
14°C 44%
15°C 31%
16°C 19%
13°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
12%
14°C
44%
15°C
31%
16°C
17%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 44%
15°C 31%
16°C 19%
13°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
$576 Обс.
<1%
9°C
$220 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$118 Обс.
1%
11°C
$94 Обс.
1%
12°C
$141 Обс.
4%
13°C
$35 Обс.
12%
14°C
$203 Обс.
44%
15°C
$64 Обс.
31%
16°C
$37 Обс.
17%
17°C
$9 Обс.
1%
18°C or higher
$130 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from New Zealand’s MetService point to a maximum temperature of 14–15°C in Wellington on May 18, driven by a passing frontal system bringing southerly winds and increased cloud cover that will limit daytime heating. Mid-May climatology shows average highs near 14°C, with daily variability typically confined to a narrow 3–4°C range around that baseline unless a strong high-pressure ridge develops. Current ensemble guidance shows only modest warming potential from reduced cloud cover late in the period, keeping the market-implied probabilities concentrated on 14°C and 15°C. Updated model runs expected within the next 24–48 hours will refine wind and cloud forecasts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,625Дата завершення
May 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from New Zealand’s MetService point to a maximum temperature of 14–15°C in Wellington on May 18, driven by a passing frontal system bringing southerly winds and increased cloud cover that will limit daytime heating. Mid-May climatology shows average highs near 14°C, with daily variability typically confined to a narrow 3–4°C range around that baseline unless a strong high-pressure ridge develops. Current ensemble guidance shows only modest warming potential from reduced cloud cover late in the period, keeping the market-implied probabilities concentrated on 14°C and 15°C. Updated model runs expected within the next 24–48 hours will refine wind and cloud forecasts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$1,625Дата завершення
May 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNRecent forecast models from New Zealand’s MetService point to a maximum temperature of 14–15°C in Wellington on May 18, driven by a passing frontal system bringing southerly winds and increased cloud cover that will limit daytime heating. Mid-May climatology shows average highs near 14°C, with daily variability typically confined to a narrow 3–4°C range around that baseline unless a strong high-pressure ridge develops. Current ensemble guidance shows only modest warming potential from reduced cloud cover late in the period, keeping the market-implied probabilities concentrated on 14°C and 15°C. Updated model runs expected within the next 24–48 hours will refine wind and cloud forecasts ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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