The 10-year Treasury yield recently traded near 4.43–4.47% after touching 4.55% in mid-June 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns. Persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East have supported higher oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Fed’s patient stance—evident in the June 16–17 FOMC meeting—has kept short-term rate cuts limited and anchored longer-term yields in the 4–4.5% range. Market-implied odds price in upside risks from resilient growth and policy uncertainty through year-end, tempered by potential labor-market softening or recession signals that could cap peaks before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, the July FOMC meeting, and any shifts in Treasury supply dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$240,009 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
4.8%
26%
5.0%
15%
5.2%
4%
5.5%
5%
5.7%
4%
6.0%
3%
$240,009 Обс.
4.8%
$51,236 Обс.
26%
5.0%
$58,551 Обс.
15%
5.2%
$15,297 Обс.
4%
5.5%
$2,475 Обс.
5%
5.7%
$3,817 Обс.
4%
6.0%
$2,348 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield recently traded near 4.43–4.47% after touching 4.55% in mid-June 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns. Persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East have supported higher oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Fed’s patient stance—evident in the June 16–17 FOMC meeting—has kept short-term rate cuts limited and anchored longer-term yields in the 4–4.5% range. Market-implied odds price in upside risks from resilient growth and policy uncertainty through year-end, tempered by potential labor-market softening or recession signals that could cap peaks before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, the July FOMC meeting, and any shifts in Treasury supply dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$240,009Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield recently traded near 4.43–4.47% after touching 4.55% in mid-June 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns. Persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East have supported higher oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Fed’s patient stance—evident in the June 16–17 FOMC meeting—has kept short-term rate cuts limited and anchored longer-term yields in the 4–4.5% range. Market-implied odds price in upside risks from resilient growth and policy uncertainty through year-end, tempered by potential labor-market softening or recession signals that could cap peaks before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, the July FOMC meeting, and any shifts in Treasury supply dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Обсяг
$240,009Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield recently traded near 4.43–4.47% after touching 4.55% in mid-June 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns. Persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East have supported higher oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Fed’s patient stance—evident in the June 16–17 FOMC meeting—has kept short-term rate cuts limited and anchored longer-term yields in the 4–4.5% range. Market-implied odds price in upside risks from resilient growth and policy uncertainty through year-end, tempered by potential labor-market softening or recession signals that could cap peaks before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, the July FOMC meeting, and any shifts in Treasury supply dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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