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Політика·первинні вибори

KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory

icon for KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
Політика·первинні вибори

KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory

Gallrein 9%+ 99.3%

Gallrein 6-9% <1%

Gallrein <3% <1%

Massie 3-6% <1%

Polymarket

$196,771 Обс.

Gallrein 9%+ 99.3%

Gallrein 6-9% <1%

Gallrein <3% <1%

Massie 3-6% <1%

Polymarket

$196,771 Обс.

Gallrein 9%+

$125,579 Обс.

99%

Gallrein 6-9%

$12,513 Обс.

1%

Gallrein 3-6%

$8,248 Обс.

<1%

Gallrein <3%

$5,624 Обс.

<1%

Massie <3%

$9,902 Обс.

<1%

Massie 3-6%

$19,365 Обс.

<1%

Massie 6%+

$14,451 Обс.

<1%

Other

$1,089 Обс.

<1%

The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026 This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The confirmed May 19, 2026, results in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District Republican primary show Ed Gallrein defeating incumbent Thomas Massie 54.9% to 45.1%, establishing a margin just under 10 points. This outcome reflects the impact of President Trump’s endorsement of Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with heavy outside spending in a race that set congressional primary records. Massie conceded on election night after trailing in key counties. Trader consensus at 99.3% for a Gallrein 9%+ margin aligns with these verified tallies and the absence of successful challenges. A recount, late-discovered irregularities, or court intervention could still alter the final certified margin, though no such actions have advanced.

The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Обсяг
$196,771
Дата завершення
May 19, 2026
Ринок відкрито
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026 This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026 This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The confirmed May 19, 2026, results in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District Republican primary show Ed Gallrein defeating incumbent Thomas Massie 54.9% to 45.1%, establishing a margin just under 10 points. This outcome reflects the impact of President Trump’s endorsement of Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with heavy outside spending in a race that set congressional primary records. Massie conceded on election night after trailing in key counties. Trader consensus at 99.3% for a Gallrein 9%+ margin aligns with these verified tallies and the absence of successful challenges. A recount, late-discovered irregularities, or court intervention could still alter the final certified margin, though no such actions have advanced.

The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Обсяг
$196,771
Дата завершення
May 19, 2026
Ринок відкрито
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026 This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 8 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Gallrein 9%+» з 99%, далі «Gallrein 6-9%» з 1%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory» згенерував $196.8K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку May 18, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory», перегляньте 8 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory» — «Gallrein 9%+» з 99%. Наступний — «Gallrein 6-9%» з 1%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

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