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Вибори·Близький Схід

Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані

icon for Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані
Вибори·Близький Схід

Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані

Рух «Амаль» (Амаль) 6.3%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 5.2%

Партія Такаддом 3.2%

ReLebanon 3.0%

Polymarket

$532,450 Обс.

Рух «Амаль» (Амаль) 6.3%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 5.2%

Партія Такаддом 3.2%

ReLebanon 3.0%

Polymarket

$532,450 Обс.

Рух «Амаль» (Амаль)

$53,709 Обс.

6%

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$158,091 Обс.

5%

Партія Такаддом

$6,113 Обс.

3%

ReLebanon

$3,307 Обс.

3%

Хезболла (Hezb)

$44,038 Обс.

3%

Асоціація ісламських благодійних проектів (ICPA)

$4,398 Обс.

3%

Рух Марада (MM)

$3,796 Обс.

2%

Альянс Ватані (Ватані)

$4,686 Обс.

2%

Вільний патріотичний рух (ВПР)

$74,483 Обс.

2%

Партія Катаїб (Катаїб)

$4,126 Обс.

1%

Union Party (UP)

$3,376 Обс.

1%

Національна ліберальна партія (НЛП)

$5,135 Обс.

1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$4,584 Обс.

1%

Партія національного діалогу (ПНД)

$41,888 Обс.

<1%

Ісламська група (ІГ)

$3,585 Обс.

<1%

Вірменська революційна федерація (АРФ)

$5,112 Обс.

<1%

Партія Мада (Мада)

$24,363 Обс.

<1%

Лана – Соціал-демократична партія (Лана)

$4,450 Обс.

<1%

Арабська соціалістична партія Баас у Лівані (Баас)

$6,573 Обс.

<1%

Хатт Ахмар

$3,330 Обс.

<1%

Прогресивна соціалістична партія (ПСП)

$47,456 Обс.

<1%

Рух незалежності (IM)

$3,135 Обс.

<1%

Рух Гідності (РГ)

$22,716 Обс.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament voted in March 2026 to extend its mandate by two years, postponing the scheduled May vote amid renewed escalation between Hezbollah and Israel. This decision, backed by a majority including Speaker Nabih Berri, has left the field fragmented with no dominant bloc emerging among established groups such as Amal, the Lebanese Forces, or Hezbollah-linked lists. Ongoing security disruptions, unresolved disputes over expatriate voting rules, and the absence of new electoral legislation continue to limit coalition-building. Traders reflect this uncertainty through dispersed probabilities, as shifting alliances and potential post-conflict realignments could still consolidate support behind one outcome before the rescheduled 2028 contest.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Обсяг
$532,450
Дата завершення
May 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament voted in March 2026 to extend its mandate by two years, postponing the scheduled May vote amid renewed escalation between Hezbollah and Israel. This decision, backed by a majority including Speaker Nabih Berri, has left the field fragmented with no dominant bloc emerging among established groups such as Amal, the Lebanese Forces, or Hezbollah-linked lists. Ongoing security disruptions, unresolved disputes over expatriate voting rules, and the absence of new electoral legislation continue to limit coalition-building. Traders reflect this uncertainty through dispersed probabilities, as shifting alliances and potential post-conflict realignments could still consolidate support behind one outcome before the rescheduled 2028 contest.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Обсяг
$532,450
Дата завершення
May 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 23 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Рух «Амаль» (Амаль)» з 6%, далі «Lebanese Forces (LF)» з 5%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані» згенерував $532.5K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jan 6, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані», перегляньте 23 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Це відкритий ринок. Поточний лідер для «Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані» — «Рух «Амаль» (Амаль)» лише з 6%, а «Lebanese Forces (LF)» — близько позаду з 5%. Жоден результат не має впевненої більшості — трейдери вважають це дуже невизначеним.

Правила вирішення для «Переможець парламентських виборів у Лівані» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.