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Elections·Middle East

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

icon for Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Elections·Middle East

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Lebanese Forces (LF) 2.3%

Amal Movement (Amal) 2.1%

Hezbollah (Hezb) <1%

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) <1%

Polymarket

$617,674 Обс.

Lebanese Forces (LF) 2.3%

Amal Movement (Amal) 2.1%

Hezbollah (Hezb) <1%

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) <1%

Polymarket

$617,674 Обс.

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$161,603 Обс.

2%

Amal Movement (Amal)

$62,358 Обс.

2%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$49,524 Обс.

1%

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)

$76,865 Обс.

<1%

Union Party (UP)

$5,587 Обс.

<1%

National Dialogue Party (NDP)

$43,548 Обс.

<1%

Mada Party (Mada)

$24,722 Обс.

<1%

Taqaddom Party

$8,991 Обс.

<1%

Watani Alliance (Watani)

$5,633 Обс.

<1%

Kataeb Party (Kataeb)

$5,159 Обс.

<1%

Marada Movement (MM)

$6,482 Обс.

<1%

Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)

$5,888 Обс.

<1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$6,855 Обс.

<1%

Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)

$13,761 Обс.

<1%

Islamic Group (IG)

$7,620 Обс.

<1%

Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)

$9,691 Обс.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$8,477 Обс.

<1%

Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)

$52,225 Обс.

<1%

Independence Movement (IM)

$7,894 Обс.

<1%

National Liberal Party (NLP)

$8,596 Обс.

<1%

Dignity Movement (DM)

$28,157 Обс.

<1%

ReLebanon

$9,486 Обс.

<1%

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)

$8,549 Обс.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed by two years after parliament extended its mandate in March amid renewed full-scale conflict with Israel and widespread displacement. This delay, coupled with the 2026 war’s damage to infrastructure and supply lines, has left the contest for the 128 seats highly uncertain under the sectarian proportional system. Amal Movement holds the highest implied probability among listed options due to its organizational reach in core Shiite districts and Speaker Nabih Berri’s long-standing influence, while Lebanese Forces and other Christian parties eye potential diaspora support and reform appeals. Hezbollah faces leadership losses and scrutiny over disarmament, and opposition or independent lists remain fragmented without unified alliances. Trader pricing reflects this dispersion, where coalition negotiations, expatriate turnout, reconstruction priorities, and any further security shifts could consolidate or redistribute seats across the wide field before the rescheduled vote.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Обсяг
$617,674
Дата завершення
May 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed by two years after parliament extended its mandate in March amid renewed full-scale conflict with Israel and widespread displacement. This delay, coupled with the 2026 war’s damage to infrastructure and supply lines, has left the contest for the 128 seats highly uncertain under the sectarian proportional system. Amal Movement holds the highest implied probability among listed options due to its organizational reach in core Shiite districts and Speaker Nabih Berri’s long-standing influence, while Lebanese Forces and other Christian parties eye potential diaspora support and reform appeals. Hezbollah faces leadership losses and scrutiny over disarmament, and opposition or independent lists remain fragmented without unified alliances. Trader pricing reflects this dispersion, where coalition negotiations, expatriate turnout, reconstruction priorities, and any further security shifts could consolidate or redistribute seats across the wide field before the rescheduled vote.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Обсяг
$617,674
Дата завершення
May 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 23 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Lebanese Forces (LF)» з 2%, далі «Amal Movement (Amal)» з 2%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner» згенерував $617.7K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jan 6, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner», перегляньте 23 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Це відкритий ринок. Поточний лідер для «Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner» — «Lebanese Forces (LF)» лише з 2%, а «Amal Movement (Amal)» — близько позаду з 2%. Жоден результат не має впевненої більшості — трейдери вважають це дуже невизначеним.

Правила вирішення для «Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.