**Persistent southwesterly flow and widespread cloud cover/rain are keeping overnight minima elevated above seasonal norms, concentrating market-implied odds on 16–18 °C.** Forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models (KNMI/Harmonie) for 30 August show a mild maritime airmass advecting across the North Sea, with surface winds 15–25 km/h from the southwest and dew points near 15–17 °C. This limits nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers, producing projected lows of 16–17 °C at Schiphol/Amsterdam stations. Ensemble spreads remain narrow because the steering pattern is stable through the weekend; only modest timing differences in any clearing or heavier rain bands separate the 16 °C, 17 °C, and 18 °C outcomes (collectively ~83 % probability). Historical August minima average ~12.5 °C, but the current anomalous warmth and moisture (recent days have seen 15–17 °C lows) reinforce trader consensus around these values. Key upcoming updates—next ECMWF and GFS runs plus KNMI short-range guidance—will refine exact overnight wind mixing and cloud trends, but the setup favors little deviation outside the 15–19 °C band.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 30?
17°C 30%
16°C 27%
18°C 27%
15°C 19%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
11%
14°C
15%
15°C
19%
16°C
27%
17°C
30%
18°C
27%
19°C
17%
20°C
2%
21°C
8%
22°C
8%
23°C or higher
14%
17°C 30%
16°C 27%
18°C 27%
15°C 19%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Обс.
11%
14°C
$0 Обс.
15%
15°C
$0 Обс.
19%
16°C
$0 Обс.
27%
17°C
$0 Обс.
30%
18°C
$0 Обс.
27%
19°C
$0 Обс.
17%
20°C
$0 Обс.
2%
21°C
$0 Обс.
8%
22°C
$0 Обс.
8%
23°C or higher
$0 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwesterly flow and widespread cloud cover/rain are keeping overnight minima elevated above seasonal norms, concentrating market-implied odds on 16–18 °C.**
Forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models (KNMI/Harmonie) for 30 August show a mild maritime airmass advecting across the North Sea, with surface winds 15–25 km/h from the southwest and dew points near 15–17 °C. This limits nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers, producing projected lows of 16–17 °C at Schiphol/Amsterdam stations. Ensemble spreads remain narrow because the steering pattern is stable through the weekend; only modest timing differences in any clearing or heavier rain bands separate the 16 °C, 17 °C, and 18 °C outcomes (collectively ~83 % probability).
Historical August minima average ~12.5 °C, but the current anomalous warmth and moisture (recent days have seen 15–17 °C lows) reinforce trader consensus around these values. Key upcoming updates—next ECMWF and GFS runs plus KNMI short-range guidance—will refine exact overnight wind mixing and cloud trends, but the setup favors little deviation outside the 15–19 °C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwesterly flow and widespread cloud cover/rain are keeping overnight minima elevated above seasonal norms, concentrating market-implied odds on 16–18 °C.**
Forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models (KNMI/Harmonie) for 30 August show a mild maritime airmass advecting across the North Sea, with surface winds 15–25 km/h from the southwest and dew points near 15–17 °C. This limits nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers, producing projected lows of 16–17 °C at Schiphol/Amsterdam stations. Ensemble spreads remain narrow because the steering pattern is stable through the weekend; only modest timing differences in any clearing or heavier rain bands separate the 16 °C, 17 °C, and 18 °C outcomes (collectively ~83 % probability).
Historical August minima average ~12.5 °C, but the current anomalous warmth and moisture (recent days have seen 15–17 °C lows) reinforce trader consensus around these values. Key upcoming updates—next ECMWF and GFS runs plus KNMI short-range guidance—will refine exact overnight wind mixing and cloud trends, but the setup favors little deviation outside the 15–19 °C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent southwesterly flow and widespread cloud cover/rain are keeping overnight minima elevated above seasonal norms, concentrating market-implied odds on 16–18 °C.** Forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models (KNMI/Harmonie) for 30 August show a mild maritime airmass advecting across the North Sea, with surface winds 15–25 km/h from the southwest and dew points near 15–17 °C. This limits nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers, producing projected lows of 16–17 °C at Schiphol/Amsterdam stations. Ensemble spreads remain narrow because the steering pattern is stable through the weekend; only modest timing differences in any clearing or heavier rain bands separate the 16 °C, 17 °C, and 18 °C outcomes (collectively ~83 % probability). Historical August minima average ~12.5 °C, but the current anomalous warmth and moisture (recent days have seen 15–17 °C lows) reinforce trader consensus around these values. Key upcoming updates—next ECMWF and GFS runs plus KNMI short-range guidance—will refine exact overnight wind mixing and cloud trends, but the setup favors little deviation outside the 15–19 °C band.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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