Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a September 3 minimum temperature in Tokyo near 24–25°C, driven by increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and a shift to southerly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent model runs show the overnight low moderated by high humidity and precipitation probabilities exceeding 50% after midnight, consistent with historical early-September patterns when tropical moisture intrudes. This consensus underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 25°C (45%) and 24°C (27%), with smaller probabilities on 26°C reflecting minor model spread in timing of rain and wind shifts. Traders monitor final JMA updates and local observations through the evening of September 2 for any last adjustments to the expected minimum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 3?
25°C 39%
26°C 36%
24°C 21%
23°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
7%
24°C
21%
25°C
39%
26°C
36%
27°C
4%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 39%
26°C 36%
24°C 21%
23°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
21°C or below
$251 Обс.
2%
22°C
$135 Обс.
5%
23°C
$115 Обс.
7%
24°C
$368 Обс.
21%
25°C
$174 Обс.
39%
26°C
$296 Обс.
36%
27°C
$156 Обс.
4%
28°C
$34 Обс.
2%
29°C
$52 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$52 Обс.
<1%
31°C or higher
$102 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a September 3 minimum temperature in Tokyo near 24–25°C, driven by increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and a shift to southerly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent model runs show the overnight low moderated by high humidity and precipitation probabilities exceeding 50% after midnight, consistent with historical early-September patterns when tropical moisture intrudes. This consensus underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 25°C (45%) and 24°C (27%), with smaller probabilities on 26°C reflecting minor model spread in timing of rain and wind shifts. Traders monitor final JMA updates and local observations through the evening of September 2 for any last adjustments to the expected minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,736Дата завершення
Sep 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a September 3 minimum temperature in Tokyo near 24–25°C, driven by increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and a shift to southerly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent model runs show the overnight low moderated by high humidity and precipitation probabilities exceeding 50% after midnight, consistent with historical early-September patterns when tropical moisture intrudes. This consensus underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 25°C (45%) and 24°C (27%), with smaller probabilities on 26°C reflecting minor model spread in timing of rain and wind shifts. Traders monitor final JMA updates and local observations through the evening of September 2 for any last adjustments to the expected minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,736Дата завершення
Sep 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a September 3 minimum temperature in Tokyo near 24–25°C, driven by increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and a shift to southerly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent model runs show the overnight low moderated by high humidity and precipitation probabilities exceeding 50% after midnight, consistent with historical early-September patterns when tropical moisture intrudes. This consensus underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 25°C (45%) and 24°C (27%), with smaller probabilities on 26°C reflecting minor model spread in timing of rain and wind shifts. Traders monitor final JMA updates and local observations through the evening of September 2 for any last adjustments to the expected minimum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання