Recent global surface temperature observations from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information place April 2026 at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, supporting the market's strong consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C range for May. ENSO-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific are rapidly transitioning toward El Niño onset, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center assigning an 82% probability for emergence by May–July 2026. This shift, combined with ongoing long-term warming trends, sustains above-average anomalies while model ensembles indicate limited further intensification for the current month. Traders weigh these factors against historical May baselines and upcoming NCEI monthly releases that could refine resolution criteria.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,574 Обс.
$58,574 Обс.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,574 Обс.
$58,574 Обс.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$23,927 Обс.
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 Обс.
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,783 Обс.
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,181 Обс.
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 Обс.
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global surface temperature observations from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information place April 2026 at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, supporting the market's strong consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C range for May. ENSO-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific are rapidly transitioning toward El Niño onset, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center assigning an 82% probability for emergence by May–July 2026. This shift, combined with ongoing long-term warming trends, sustains above-average anomalies while model ensembles indicate limited further intensification for the current month. Traders weigh these factors against historical May baselines and upcoming NCEI monthly releases that could refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$58,574Дата завершення
Jun 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global surface temperature observations from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information place April 2026 at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, supporting the market's strong consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C range for May. ENSO-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific are rapidly transitioning toward El Niño onset, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center assigning an 82% probability for emergence by May–July 2026. This shift, combined with ongoing long-term warming trends, sustains above-average anomalies while model ensembles indicate limited further intensification for the current month. Traders weigh these factors against historical May baselines and upcoming NCEI monthly releases that could refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$58,574Дата завершення
Jun 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global surface temperature observations from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information place April 2026 at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average, supporting the market's strong consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C range for May. ENSO-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific are rapidly transitioning toward El Niño onset, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center assigning an 82% probability for emergence by May–July 2026. This shift, combined with ongoing long-term warming trends, sustains above-average anomalies while model ensembles indicate limited further intensification for the current month. Traders weigh these factors against historical May baselines and upcoming NCEI monthly releases that could refine resolution criteria.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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