Hana Ghassan, the incumbent MDB governor seeking re-election, leads most recent polling for the October 4 first round but faces a tight contest against Dr. Daniel Santos of Podemos, the former Ananindeua mayor. Late September surveys from Real Time Big Data and AtlasIntel show Hana at 44-52% of valid votes in the opening round, with Daniel close behind at 37-44%, while minor candidates remain under 3%. A potential runoff between the two appears within the margin of error in several head-to-head tests. Trader pricing reflects Hana’s incumbency advantage and consistent polling edge, yet the narrow gaps and large undecided blocs sustain elevated probabilities for other outcomes until votes are cast.