Recent polling has strengthened trader consensus around center-left candidate Andrea Martella for the Venice mayoral election, with surveys such as the Tecné poll from early May showing him ahead of center-right challenger Simone Venturini in both first-round and projected runoff scenarios. Martella’s position as the Democratic Party nominee and Veneto coordinator, combined with campaign emphasis on tourism regulation, commerce incentives, and public safety measures, has consolidated support among undecided voters ahead of the May 24-25 first round. Venturini, backed by the center-right coalition including Fratelli d’Italia, Lega, and Forza Italia as the successor to outgoing mayor Luigi Brugnaro, maintains a competitive but narrower path through first-round structural advantages and appeals to specific voter groups. Minor candidates including economist Michele Boldrin remain at negligible levels, reflecting limited polling visibility and coalition fragmentation. The implied probabilities embed expectations for potential runoff dynamics on June 7-8 while acknowledging remaining uncertainty from high undecided shares and standard municipal election volatility.