Incumbent Rep. Becca Balint's announcement last week of her bid for a third term in Vermont's at-large congressional district has solidified trader consensus on a Democratic hold, pricing the party at 93% implied probability amid the state's strong partisan lean toward Democrats. Balint's comfortable reelection in 2024 with over 70% of the vote, combined with no high-profile Republican challenger emerging—like 2024 foe Mark Coester who garnered under 30%—drives the lopsided odds, reflecting historical base rates in safely blue districts. Vermont's open primary on August 11 precedes the November 3 general election, but a seismic GOP recruitment, Balint scandal, or national Republican wave would be needed to challenge this trajectory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоVT-AL House Election Winner
VT-AL House Election Winner
$11,261 Обс.
$11,261 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$11,261 Обс.
$11,261 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,357 Обс.
94%
Republican Party
$4,904 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Becca Balint's announcement last week of her bid for a third term in Vermont's at-large congressional district has solidified trader consensus on a Democratic hold, pricing the party at 93% implied probability amid the state's strong partisan lean toward Democrats. Balint's comfortable reelection in 2024 with over 70% of the vote, combined with no high-profile Republican challenger emerging—like 2024 foe Mark Coester who garnered under 30%—drives the lopsided odds, reflecting historical base rates in safely blue districts. Vermont's open primary on August 11 precedes the November 3 general election, but a seismic GOP recruitment, Balint scandal, or national Republican wave would be needed to challenge this trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Обсяг
$11,261Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Becca Balint's announcement last week of her bid for a third term in Vermont's at-large congressional district has solidified trader consensus on a Democratic hold, pricing the party at 93% implied probability amid the state's strong partisan lean toward Democrats. Balint's comfortable reelection in 2024 with over 70% of the vote, combined with no high-profile Republican challenger emerging—like 2024 foe Mark Coester who garnered under 30%—drives the lopsided odds, reflecting historical base rates in safely blue districts. Vermont's open primary on August 11 precedes the November 3 general election, but a seismic GOP recruitment, Balint scandal, or national Republican wave would be needed to challenge this trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$11,261Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Becca Balint's announcement last week of her bid for a third term in Vermont's at-large congressional district has solidified trader consensus on a Democratic hold, pricing the party at 93% implied probability amid the state's strong partisan lean toward Democrats. Balint's comfortable reelection in 2024 with over 70% of the vote, combined with no high-profile Republican challenger emerging—like 2024 foe Mark Coester who garnered under 30%—drives the lopsided odds, reflecting historical base rates in safely blue districts. Vermont's open primary on August 11 precedes the November 3 general election, but a seismic GOP recruitment, Balint scandal, or national Republican wave would be needed to challenge this trajectory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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