Traders assign 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, because Beijing has sustained grey-zone coercion through expanded coast guard patrols east of the island, routine aerial and naval incursions, and live-fire drills without visible large-scale amphibious mobilization or strike preparations in recent months. Diplomatic engagement between U.S. and Chinese leaders following the May 2026 summit has coincided with stable cross-strait military activity levels, while Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses via record 2027 budget proposals, drone procurement legislation, littoral command activation, and Han Kuang exercises testing rapid response. Xi Jinping’s repeated statements on unification as a long-term commitment align with this incremental approach rather than immediate kinetic action. Sudden miscalculation during exercises or abrupt breakdown in U.S.-China talks remain the primary low-probability pathways that could still shift the outcome before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЧи вторгнеться Китай на Тайвань до кінця 2026 року?
Чи вторгнеться Китай на Тайвань до кінця 2026 року?
Так
4% шанс
$40,419,168 Обс.
$40,419,168 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
Заробляйте 3.25%
Так
4% шанс
$40,419,168 Обс.
$40,419,168 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
Заробляйте 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, because Beijing has sustained grey-zone coercion through expanded coast guard patrols east of the island, routine aerial and naval incursions, and live-fire drills without visible large-scale amphibious mobilization or strike preparations in recent months. Diplomatic engagement between U.S. and Chinese leaders following the May 2026 summit has coincided with stable cross-strait military activity levels, while Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses via record 2027 budget proposals, drone procurement legislation, littoral command activation, and Han Kuang exercises testing rapid response. Xi Jinping’s repeated statements on unification as a long-term commitment align with this incremental approach rather than immediate kinetic action. Sudden miscalculation during exercises or abrupt breakdown in U.S.-China talks remain the primary low-probability pathways that could still shift the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$40,419,168Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETВирішувач
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, because Beijing has sustained grey-zone coercion through expanded coast guard patrols east of the island, routine aerial and naval incursions, and live-fire drills without visible large-scale amphibious mobilization or strike preparations in recent months. Diplomatic engagement between U.S. and Chinese leaders following the May 2026 summit has coincided with stable cross-strait military activity levels, while Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses via record 2027 budget proposals, drone procurement legislation, littoral command activation, and Han Kuang exercises testing rapid response. Xi Jinping’s repeated statements on unification as a long-term commitment align with this incremental approach rather than immediate kinetic action. Sudden miscalculation during exercises or abrupt breakdown in U.S.-China talks remain the primary low-probability pathways that could still shift the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$40,419,168Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETВирішувач
0x157Ce2d67...Traders assign 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, because Beijing has sustained grey-zone coercion through expanded coast guard patrols east of the island, routine aerial and naval incursions, and live-fire drills without visible large-scale amphibious mobilization or strike preparations in recent months. Diplomatic engagement between U.S. and Chinese leaders following the May 2026 summit has coincided with stable cross-strait military activity levels, while Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses via record 2027 budget proposals, drone procurement legislation, littoral command activation, and Han Kuang exercises testing rapid response. Xi Jinping’s repeated statements on unification as a long-term commitment align with this incremental approach rather than immediate kinetic action. Sudden miscalculation during exercises or abrupt breakdown in U.S.-China talks remain the primary low-probability pathways that could still shift the outcome before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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