China’s leadership has prioritized gray-zone coercion, including routine coast-guard patrols east of Taiwan and normalized People’s Liberation Army activity in the Taiwan Strait, rather than the massive mobilization required for an amphibious invasion before the end of 2026. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments confirm no fixed timeline or current intent for military action, while ongoing PLA leadership purges have further reduced operational readiness for a high-risk campaign. Traders assign a 96.2 percent probability to “No” because the remaining window is short, economic and strategic costs remain prohibitive, and Beijing continues to favor incremental pressure that avoids direct confrontation. Late developments such as an unexpected Taiwanese independence declaration or rapid escalation in cross-strait incidents could still shift probabilities, though such triggers appear unlikely in the current timeframe.