Canada's federal government has sharply curtailed temporary resident admissions through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, setting new arrival targets at 385,000 while aiming to reduce non-permanent residents below 5 percent of the total population by late 2027. Statistics Canada preliminary estimates already recorded a 0.2 percent net decline in 2025, the first annual drop since Confederation, driven by accelerated outflows of international students and foreign workers that outweighed permanent resident inflows and natural increase. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects flat population growth for 2026 under these measures. Traders' 61 percent implied probability of a further decrease reflects this policy-induced normalization, as continued net outflows are expected to offset modest permanent immigration gains through year-end.