Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for June 15 project a minimum of 18°C in Tokyo amid the onset of the tsuyu rainy season, with rain and cloudy skies expected to moderate nighttime cooling. This aligns closely with the 39.5% market-implied probability for 18°C, the leading outcome, while 17°C (28%) and 19°C (19%) reflect typical model uncertainty ranges around the seasonal normal low of 18.6°C. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime highs near 22°C and limit diurnal temperature swings, consistent with historical June patterns where overnight lows cluster between 17–19°C during early monsoon influence. Traders appear to weigh these verified forecast data and climatological baselines heavily, with upcoming model updates from JMA and regional agencies likely to refine probabilities as the 24-hour window approaches.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Tokyo on June 15?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 15?
18°C 40%
17°C 28%
19°C 19%
20°C 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 15, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
4%
17°C
28%
18°C
40%
19°C
19%
20°C
5%
21°C
4%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 40%
17°C 28%
19°C 19%
20°C 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 15, 2026
13°C or below
$37 KL.
<1%
14°C
$27 KL.
<1%
15°C
$97 KL.
1%
16°C
$17 KL.
4%
17°C
$29 KL.
28%
18°C
$31 KL.
40%
19°C
$133 KL.
19%
20°C
$37 KL.
5%
21°C
$69 KL.
4%
22°C
$22 KL.
1%
23°C or higher
$27 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for June 15 project a minimum of 18°C in Tokyo amid the onset of the tsuyu rainy season, with rain and cloudy skies expected to moderate nighttime cooling. This aligns closely with the 39.5% market-implied probability for 18°C, the leading outcome, while 17°C (28%) and 19°C (19%) reflect typical model uncertainty ranges around the seasonal normal low of 18.6°C. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime highs near 22°C and limit diurnal temperature swings, consistent with historical June patterns where overnight lows cluster between 17–19°C during early monsoon influence. Traders appear to weigh these verified forecast data and climatological baselines heavily, with upcoming model updates from JMA and regional agencies likely to refine probabilities as the 24-hour window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Jun 13, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
Khối lượng
$505Ngày kết thúc
Jun 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 13, 2026, 12:34 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for June 15 project a minimum of 18°C in Tokyo amid the onset of the tsuyu rainy season, with rain and cloudy skies expected to moderate nighttime cooling. This aligns closely with the 39.5% market-implied probability for 18°C, the leading outcome, while 17°C (28%) and 19°C (19%) reflect typical model uncertainty ranges around the seasonal normal low of 18.6°C. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime highs near 22°C and limit diurnal temperature swings, consistent with historical June patterns where overnight lows cluster between 17–19°C during early monsoon influence. Traders appear to weigh these verified forecast data and climatological baselines heavily, with upcoming model updates from JMA and regional agencies likely to refine probabilities as the 24-hour window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$505Ngày kết thúc
Jun 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 13, 2026, 12:34 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for June 15 project a minimum of 18°C in Tokyo amid the onset of the tsuyu rainy season, with rain and cloudy skies expected to moderate nighttime cooling. This aligns closely with the 39.5% market-implied probability for 18°C, the leading outcome, while 17°C (28%) and 19°C (19%) reflect typical model uncertainty ranges around the seasonal normal low of 18.6°C. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime highs near 22°C and limit diurnal temperature swings, consistent with historical June patterns where overnight lows cluster between 17–19°C during early monsoon influence. Traders appear to weigh these verified forecast data and climatological baselines heavily, with upcoming model updates from JMA and regional agencies likely to refine probabilities as the 24-hour window approaches.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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