**Trader consensus centers on a 10°C minimum for Wellington on August 27, 2026, reflecting strong alignment in official forecasts.** New Zealand MetService and supporting models project an overnight low near 10°C under brisk northerly to northwesterly winds, with partly cloudy conditions and limited radiational cooling. This matches the market's near-100% implied probability on the 10°C outcome, as real-time observations and short-range guidance show temperatures stabilizing around that threshold after daytime highs near 13–15°C. Historical August climatology for Wellington supports typical overnight minima of 8–11°C, placing the current forecast squarely within normal bounds without extreme deviations. The primary driver remains the latest model consensus on steering flow and cloud cover, which limits further cooling. Realistic challenges include a sharper wind shift allowing clearer skies for enhanced nocturnal cooling or station-specific measurement variance at the official Wellington site, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of dropping to 9°C or below before midnight. Updated MetService briefings and any late-model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any market movement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Wellington on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 27?
10°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$1,845 KL.
$1,845 KL.
Aug 27, 2026
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C or higher
No
10°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$1,845 KL.
$1,845 KL.
Aug 27, 2026
5°C or below
$193 KL.
No
6°C
$63 KL.
No
7°C
$94 KL.
No
8°C
$113 KL.
No
9°C
$97 KL.
No
10°C
$217 KL.
Yes
11°C
$223 KL.
No
12°C
$133 KL.
No
13°C
$43 KL.
No
14°C
$315 KL.
No
15°C or higher
$356 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 10°C minimum for Wellington on August 27, 2026, reflecting strong alignment in official forecasts.** New Zealand MetService and supporting models project an overnight low near 10°C under brisk northerly to northwesterly winds, with partly cloudy conditions and limited radiational cooling. This matches the market's near-100% implied probability on the 10°C outcome, as real-time observations and short-range guidance show temperatures stabilizing around that threshold after daytime highs near 13–15°C. Historical August climatology for Wellington supports typical overnight minima of 8–11°C, placing the current forecast squarely within normal bounds without extreme deviations.
The primary driver remains the latest model consensus on steering flow and cloud cover, which limits further cooling. Realistic challenges include a sharper wind shift allowing clearer skies for enhanced nocturnal cooling or station-specific measurement variance at the official Wellington site, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of dropping to 9°C or below before midnight. Updated MetService briefings and any late-model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,845Ngày kết thúc
Aug 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 10°C minimum for Wellington on August 27, 2026, reflecting strong alignment in official forecasts.** New Zealand MetService and supporting models project an overnight low near 10°C under brisk northerly to northwesterly winds, with partly cloudy conditions and limited radiational cooling. This matches the market's near-100% implied probability on the 10°C outcome, as real-time observations and short-range guidance show temperatures stabilizing around that threshold after daytime highs near 13–15°C. Historical August climatology for Wellington supports typical overnight minima of 8–11°C, placing the current forecast squarely within normal bounds without extreme deviations.
The primary driver remains the latest model consensus on steering flow and cloud cover, which limits further cooling. Realistic challenges include a sharper wind shift allowing clearer skies for enhanced nocturnal cooling or station-specific measurement variance at the official Wellington site, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of dropping to 9°C or below before midnight. Updated MetService briefings and any late-model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$1,845Ngày kết thúc
Aug 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
**Trader consensus centers on a 10°C minimum for Wellington on August 27, 2026, reflecting strong alignment in official forecasts.** New Zealand MetService and supporting models project an overnight low near 10°C under brisk northerly to northwesterly winds, with partly cloudy conditions and limited radiational cooling. This matches the market's near-100% implied probability on the 10°C outcome, as real-time observations and short-range guidance show temperatures stabilizing around that threshold after daytime highs near 13–15°C. Historical August climatology for Wellington supports typical overnight minima of 8–11°C, placing the current forecast squarely within normal bounds without extreme deviations. The primary driver remains the latest model consensus on steering flow and cloud cover, which limits further cooling. Realistic challenges include a sharper wind shift allowing clearer skies for enhanced nocturnal cooling or station-specific measurement variance at the official Wellington site, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of dropping to 9°C or below before midnight. Updated MetService briefings and any late-model runs remain the key near-term catalysts for any market movement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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