André do Prado (PL) leads trader expectations for second place in São Paulo’s two-seat Senate race due to recent polling gains and vote consolidation on the right. A Vox Brasil survey released September 30 showed him at 28.5% overall, narrowly ahead of Marina Silva, Guilherme Derrite, and Simone Tebet in a technical four-way tie within the margin of error. Ricardo Salles’s withdrawal days earlier and endorsement of do Prado and Derrite has concentrated conservative support ahead of the October 4 vote. Polls indicate do Prado performs strongly as a second choice, while the other main contenders split first-preference support more evenly. Low-probability names remain sidelined with minimal polling traction.