Ongoing US-mediated negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have produced incremental progress on military de-escalation mechanisms and prisoner exchanges, yet core disagreements over territorial control, security guarantees, and long-term borders remain unresolved. The three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, 2026, announced by President Trump and accompanied by a 1,000-person swap per side, was followed by mutual violation claims and statements from Russian officials that no concrete framework for a comprehensive agreement exists. These developments reinforce trader consensus that a full peace deal is unlikely before the June 30 deadline, given historical patterns of stalled talks and the time required to bridge entrenched positions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$439,617 KL.
$439,617 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$439,617 KL.
$439,617 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-mediated negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have produced incremental progress on military de-escalation mechanisms and prisoner exchanges, yet core disagreements over territorial control, security guarantees, and long-term borders remain unresolved. The three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, 2026, announced by President Trump and accompanied by a 1,000-person swap per side, was followed by mutual violation claims and statements from Russian officials that no concrete framework for a comprehensive agreement exists. These developments reinforce trader consensus that a full peace deal is unlikely before the June 30 deadline, given historical patterns of stalled talks and the time required to bridge entrenched positions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Khối lượng
$439,617Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-mediated negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have produced incremental progress on military de-escalation mechanisms and prisoner exchanges, yet core disagreements over territorial control, security guarantees, and long-term borders remain unresolved. The three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, 2026, announced by President Trump and accompanied by a 1,000-person swap per side, was followed by mutual violation claims and statements from Russian officials that no concrete framework for a comprehensive agreement exists. These developments reinforce trader consensus that a full peace deal is unlikely before the June 30 deadline, given historical patterns of stalled talks and the time required to bridge entrenched positions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$439,617Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-mediated negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have produced incremental progress on military de-escalation mechanisms and prisoner exchanges, yet core disagreements over territorial control, security guarantees, and long-term borders remain unresolved. The three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, 2026, announced by President Trump and accompanied by a 1,000-person swap per side, was followed by mutual violation claims and statements from Russian officials that no concrete framework for a comprehensive agreement exists. These developments reinforce trader consensus that a full peace deal is unlikely before the June 30 deadline, given historical patterns of stalled talks and the time required to bridge entrenched positions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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