The National Hurricane Center's inaugural 2026 Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, issued May 15, states tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days across the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, with no organized disturbances present. This drives the 98.3% market-implied probability for "No," bolstered by historical rarity—only four May hurricanes since 1851, none since 1952's Hurricane Able—and current atmospheric conditions featuring high vertical wind shear and dry Saharan air suppressing genesis, despite Gulf sea surface temperatures approaching the 26.5°C threshold. Ensemble models show no development signals through May 31. Realistic upset scenarios include a sudden tropical wave amid fleeting low-shear conditions, though NHC assigns near-zero odds; monitor daily outlooks and NOAA's May 21 seasonal forecast.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$49,150 KL.
$49,150 KL.
May 31, 2026
$49,150 KL.
$49,150 KL.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's inaugural 2026 Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, issued May 15, states tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days across the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, with no organized disturbances present. This drives the 98.3% market-implied probability for "No," bolstered by historical rarity—only four May hurricanes since 1851, none since 1952's Hurricane Able—and current atmospheric conditions featuring high vertical wind shear and dry Saharan air suppressing genesis, despite Gulf sea surface temperatures approaching the 26.5°C threshold. Ensemble models show no development signals through May 31. Realistic upset scenarios include a sudden tropical wave amid fleeting low-shear conditions, though NHC assigns near-zero odds; monitor daily outlooks and NOAA's May 21 seasonal forecast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Thị trường mở: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$49,150Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's inaugural 2026 Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, issued May 15, states tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days across the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, with no organized disturbances present. This drives the 98.3% market-implied probability for "No," bolstered by historical rarity—only four May hurricanes since 1851, none since 1952's Hurricane Able—and current atmospheric conditions featuring high vertical wind shear and dry Saharan air suppressing genesis, despite Gulf sea surface temperatures approaching the 26.5°C threshold. Ensemble models show no development signals through May 31. Realistic upset scenarios include a sudden tropical wave amid fleeting low-shear conditions, though NHC assigns near-zero odds; monitor daily outlooks and NOAA's May 21 seasonal forecast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Khối lượng
$49,150Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center's inaugural 2026 Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, issued May 15, states tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next seven days across the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, with no organized disturbances present. This drives the 98.3% market-implied probability for "No," bolstered by historical rarity—only four May hurricanes since 1851, none since 1952's Hurricane Able—and current atmospheric conditions featuring high vertical wind shear and dry Saharan air suppressing genesis, despite Gulf sea surface temperatures approaching the 26.5°C threshold. Ensemble models show no development signals through May 31. Realistic upset scenarios include a sudden tropical wave amid fleeting low-shear conditions, though NHC assigns near-zero odds; monitor daily outlooks and NOAA's May 21 seasonal forecast.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp