The Central Bank of Chile's October 26-27 meeting features an 88% market-implied probability of holding the monetary policy rate at 4.5%, reflecting the board's data-dependent stance amid inflation at 4.1% year-over-year in August—above the 3% target yet aligned with projections—and a sharply downgraded 2026 GDP growth outlook of 0.25-0.75%. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the US-Iran conflict, have sustained fuel price pressures that underpin recent CPI prints while weakening domestic demand, mining output, and labor conditions prompt caution against easing. Financial operators' surveys show stable 4.5% rate expectations through 2028 alongside two-year inflation forecasts near 3%, reinforcing the hold consensus while leaving limited room for 25 basis point moves absent sharper inflation moderation or external shocks.