Trader consensus on the Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the June-through-September FOMC meetings, driven primarily by resilient U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s continued emphasis on data dependence. June and July inflation releases, along with steady nonfarm payrolls and elevated core PCE readings, have kept the policy rate anchored near current levels while Treasury yields and fed-funds futures reflect limited near-term easing. Recent FOMC communications have reinforced this path by highlighting balanced risks and the need for further progress on the 2% target, reducing the odds of an earlier cut. Key upcoming releases—including August CPI, employment figures, and the September FOMC statement—remain the principal swing factors that could alter these probabilities if growth or inflation surprises materially.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Pause–Pause–Pause 75%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$738,682 交易量
$738,682 交易量
2026-09-16
Pause–Pause–Pause
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
24%
Pause–Pause–Pause 75%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$738,682 交易量
$738,682 交易量
2026-09-16
Pause–Pause–Pause
$290,190 交易量
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$72,885 交易量
<1%
Other
$319,731 交易量
24%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on the Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the June-through-September FOMC meetings, driven primarily by resilient U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s continued emphasis on data dependence. June and July inflation releases, along with steady nonfarm payrolls and elevated core PCE readings, have kept the policy rate anchored near current levels while Treasury yields and fed-funds futures reflect limited near-term easing. Recent FOMC communications have reinforced this path by highlighting balanced risks and the need for further progress on the 2% target, reducing the odds of an earlier cut. Key upcoming releases—including August CPI, employment figures, and the September FOMC statement—remain the principal swing factors that could alter these probabilities if growth or inflation surprises materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$738,682結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on the Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the June-through-September FOMC meetings, driven primarily by resilient U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s continued emphasis on data dependence. June and July inflation releases, along with steady nonfarm payrolls and elevated core PCE readings, have kept the policy rate anchored near current levels while Treasury yields and fed-funds futures reflect limited near-term easing. Recent FOMC communications have reinforced this path by highlighting balanced risks and the need for further progress on the 2% target, reducing the odds of an earlier cut. Key upcoming releases—including August CPI, employment figures, and the September FOMC statement—remain the principal swing factors that could alter these probabilities if growth or inflation surprises materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$738,682結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the June-through-September FOMC meetings, driven primarily by resilient U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s continued emphasis on data dependence. June and July inflation releases, along with steady nonfarm payrolls and elevated core PCE readings, have kept the policy rate anchored near current levels while Treasury yields and fed-funds futures reflect limited near-term easing. Recent FOMC communications have reinforced this path by highlighting balanced risks and the need for further progress on the 2% target, reducing the odds of an earlier cut. Key upcoming releases—including August CPI, employment figures, and the September FOMC statement—remain the principal swing factors that could alter these probabilities if growth or inflation surprises materially.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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