Austin Rogers leads the crowded Florida's 2nd Congressional District Republican primary field with 80.5% implied probability in trader consensus, reflecting momentum from a late-August internal poll placing him at 25% support compared to Keith Gross at 8%. Rogers, a Panama City attorney and former counsel to Senator Rick Scott, has climbed steadily while Gross, the initial frontrunner who raised over $12 million, has declined amid sustained attacks on his prior Democratic ties and conservative record. Other candidates including Evan Power, Luke Murphy, and Jim Norton trail in single digits. The primary occurs August 18, with the market sensitive to any final shifts in voter turnout or last-minute developments among the nine contenders.