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icon for FL-04民主黨初選獲勝者
政治·佛羅裏達州

FL-04民主黨初選獲勝者

icon for FL-04民主黨初選獲勝者
政治·佛羅裏達州

FL-04民主黨初選獲勝者

LaShonda「L.J.」Holloway 78%

Michael Kirwan 21%

Brit Robinson 2.9%

Polymarket
最新

LaShonda「L.J.」Holloway 78%

Michael Kirwan 21%

Brit Robinson 2.9%

Polymarket
最新

LaShonda「L.J.」Holloway

$6,326 交易量

78%

Michael Kirwan

$1,878 交易量

21%

Brit Robinson

$637 交易量

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.LaShonda "L.J." Holloway leads the FL-04 Democratic primary market at 77.5% implied probability, reflecting her strong name recognition from prior nominations in 2022 and 2024, along with a July Tyson Group poll showing her at 41% support among likely voters versus 11% for Michael Kirwan and 4% for Brit Robinson. The August 18 primary is days away, with three qualified candidates competing to challenge Republican incumbent Aaron Bean. Kirwan holds a significant fundraising edge with over $719,000 raised through June but trails in polling. Robinson, a self-described Democratic Socialist, trails further with limited cash on hand. Trader consensus appears anchored in Holloway's established visibility in the Jacksonville-area district, while lower-priced outcomes for Kirwan at 20.5% and Robinson at 2.7% align with their relative polling deficits and the compressed timeline before voters decide.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$8,842
結束日期
2026-08-18
市場開放時間
Jul 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.LaShonda "L.J." Holloway leads the FL-04 Democratic primary market at 77.5% implied probability, reflecting her strong name recognition from prior nominations in 2022 and 2024, along with a July Tyson Group poll showing her at 41% support among likely voters versus 11% for Michael Kirwan and 4% for Brit Robinson. The August 18 primary is days away, with three qualified candidates competing to challenge Republican incumbent Aaron Bean. Kirwan holds a significant fundraising edge with over $719,000 raised through June but trails in polling. Robinson, a self-described Democratic Socialist, trails further with limited cash on hand. Trader consensus appears anchored in Holloway's established visibility in the Jacksonville-area district, while lower-priced outcomes for Kirwan at 20.5% and Robinson at 2.7% align with their relative polling deficits and the compressed timeline before voters decide.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$8,842
結束日期
2026-08-18
市場開放時間
Jul 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-04民主黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "LaShonda「L.J.」Holloway" at 78%, followed by "Michael Kirwan" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"FL-04民主黨初選獲勝者" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "FL-04民主黨初選獲勝者," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-04民主黨初選獲勝者" is "LaShonda「L.J.」Holloway" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael Kirwan" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-04民主黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.