Latest short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ensemble models including ECMWF and GFS place Ankara's May 14 high temperature squarely in the 21-22°C range, fueling the razor-thin trader split between those outcomes at 33% and 31% implied probabilities. This positioning reflects a rebound from early May's anomalous cold spell—when peaks dipped to 7°C—now yielding typical mid-May climatology with average highs of 21°C and diurnal ranges of 10-12°C from overnight lows near 12°C. Differentiating factors include uncertainty in afternoon cloud development and southerly wind strength, which could cap heating at 21°C or allow a push to 22°C under clearer skies. MGM hourly updates and Esenboğa Airport observations will sharpen resolution as diurnal maximum approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Ankara on May 14?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 14?
22°C 32.8%
21°C 31%
20°C 16%
23°C 14.8%
最新
$35,126 交易量
最新
$35,126 交易量
2026-05-14
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
4%
20°C
16%
21°C
31%
22°C
33%
23°C
15%
24°C
4%
25°C or higher
1%
22°C 32.8%
21°C 31%
20°C 16%
23°C 14.8%
最新
$35,126 交易量
最新
$35,126 交易量
2026-05-14
15°C or below
$2,228 交易量
<1%
16°C
$1,106 交易量
<1%
17°C
$2,154 交易量
1%
18°C
$5,620 交易量
1%
19°C
$3,544 交易量
4%
20°C
$2,926 交易量
16%
21°C
$2,411 交易量
31%
22°C
$2,220 交易量
33%
23°C
$4,601 交易量
15%
24°C
$4,663 交易量
4%
25°C or higher
$3,747 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ensemble models including ECMWF and GFS place Ankara's May 14 high temperature squarely in the 21-22°C range, fueling the razor-thin trader split between those outcomes at 33% and 31% implied probabilities. This positioning reflects a rebound from early May's anomalous cold spell—when peaks dipped to 7°C—now yielding typical mid-May climatology with average highs of 21°C and diurnal ranges of 10-12°C from overnight lows near 12°C. Differentiating factors include uncertainty in afternoon cloud development and southerly wind strength, which could cap heating at 21°C or allow a push to 22°C under clearer skies. MGM hourly updates and Esenboğa Airport observations will sharpen resolution as diurnal maximum approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
交易量
$35,126結束日期
2026-05-14市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ensemble models including ECMWF and GFS place Ankara's May 14 high temperature squarely in the 21-22°C range, fueling the razor-thin trader split between those outcomes at 33% and 31% implied probabilities. This positioning reflects a rebound from early May's anomalous cold spell—when peaks dipped to 7°C—now yielding typical mid-May climatology with average highs of 21°C and diurnal ranges of 10-12°C from overnight lows near 12°C. Differentiating factors include uncertainty in afternoon cloud development and southerly wind strength, which could cap heating at 21°C or allow a push to 22°C under clearer skies. MGM hourly updates and Esenboğa Airport observations will sharpen resolution as diurnal maximum approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$35,126結束日期
2026-05-14市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETLatest short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ensemble models including ECMWF and GFS place Ankara's May 14 high temperature squarely in the 21-22°C range, fueling the razor-thin trader split between those outcomes at 33% and 31% implied probabilities. This positioning reflects a rebound from early May's anomalous cold spell—when peaks dipped to 7°C—now yielding typical mid-May climatology with average highs of 21°C and diurnal ranges of 10-12°C from overnight lows near 12°C. Differentiating factors include uncertainty in afternoon cloud development and southerly wind strength, which could cap heating at 21°C or allow a push to 22°C under clearer skies. MGM hourly updates and Esenboğa Airport observations will sharpen resolution as diurnal maximum approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions