Latest numerical weather prediction models show substantial uncertainty in Chongqing's peak temperature on July 22, with ensemble guidance clustering between 38–41°C amid variable monsoon influences and urban heat island effects. Recent upper-air analyses indicate modest subsidence and light winds that could limit mixing, while soil moisture from prior rainfall may moderate daytime highs. Historical July climatology for the region features frequent exceedances of 38°C, yet day-to-day model spread remains wide due to sensitivity in boundary-layer parameterization. Traders appear to weigh the latest CMA and global ensemble outputs most heavily, with resolution hinging on verified observations from official stations. Additional model runs and satellite-derived surface data expected within 48 hours could narrow the distribution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月22日重慶氣溫最高?
40°C 34%
39°C 27%
41°C 20%
38°C 10%
$16,480 交易量
$16,480 交易量
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
2%
37°C
3%
38°C
10%
39°C
27%
40°C
34%
41°C
20%
42°C
6%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C或以上
<1%
40°C 34%
39°C 27%
41°C 20%
38°C 10%
$16,480 交易量
$16,480 交易量
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
2%
37°C
3%
38°C
10%
39°C
27%
40°C
34%
41°C
20%
42°C
6%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C或以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Jul 20, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest numerical weather prediction models show substantial uncertainty in Chongqing's peak temperature on July 22, with ensemble guidance clustering between 38–41°C amid variable monsoon influences and urban heat island effects. Recent upper-air analyses indicate modest subsidence and light winds that could limit mixing, while soil moisture from prior rainfall may moderate daytime highs. Historical July climatology for the region features frequent exceedances of 38°C, yet day-to-day model spread remains wide due to sensitivity in boundary-layer parameterization. Traders appear to weigh the latest CMA and global ensemble outputs most heavily, with resolution hinging on verified observations from official stations. Additional model runs and satellite-derived surface data expected within 48 hours could narrow the distribution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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