Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble models converge on a daily maximum of 25–26°C in Chongqing on May 17, driven by light rain and persistent low-level moisture that suppresses boundary-layer mixing and afternoon heating despite modest southerly flow advecting warmer air. This narrow spread in guidance, reflecting limited variability in cloud cover and precipitation timing, underpins the closely matched market probabilities for those two outcomes. Climatologically, the long-term May average high near 26°C provides context, though current conditions trend slightly cooler than the past several days. Traders await overnight model updates for any shifts in rainfall timing or wind strength that could alter the peak by a degree.