Spain's ongoing heatwave, driven by a surge of hot, dry Saharan air mass advection beginning July 21, forms the core driver behind the tight 39–40°C contest for Madrid's July 22 maximum. Official AEMET monitoring and ensemble forecasts show regional highs pushing into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius amid clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, with Madrid's urban heat island potentially adding 1–2°C locally. Model consensus clusters near 39–40°C but diverges on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling, creating the balanced market-implied odds. Historical July baselines average around 33–35°C, making this event an outlier tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月22日馬德裏氣溫最高？
7月22日馬德裏氣溫最高？
39°C 44%
40°C 37%
41°C 10%
38°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-07-22
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
8%
39°C
44%
40°C
37%
41°C
10%
42°C
1%
43°C
1%
44°C or higher
<1%
39°C 44%
40°C 37%
41°C 10%
38°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-07-22
34°C or below
$241 交易量
<1%
35°C
$524 交易量
1%
36°C
$473 交易量
1%
37°C
$472 交易量
1%
38°C
$2,165 交易量
8%
39°C
$1,183 交易量
44%
40°C
$3,132 交易量
37%
41°C
$662 交易量
10%
42°C
$346 交易量
1%
43°C
$314 交易量
1%
44°C or higher
$172 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's ongoing heatwave, driven by a surge of hot, dry Saharan air mass advection beginning July 21, forms the core driver behind the tight 39–40°C contest for Madrid's July 22 maximum. Official AEMET monitoring and ensemble forecasts show regional highs pushing into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius amid clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, with Madrid's urban heat island potentially adding 1–2°C locally. Model consensus clusters near 39–40°C but diverges on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling, creating the balanced market-implied odds. Historical July baselines average around 33–35°C, making this event an outlier tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 20, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
交易量
$9,673結束日期
2026-07-22市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 12:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's ongoing heatwave, driven by a surge of hot, dry Saharan air mass advection beginning July 21, forms the core driver behind the tight 39–40°C contest for Madrid's July 22 maximum. Official AEMET monitoring and ensemble forecasts show regional highs pushing into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius amid clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, with Madrid's urban heat island potentially adding 1–2°C locally. Model consensus clusters near 39–40°C but diverges on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling, creating the balanced market-implied odds. Historical July baselines average around 33–35°C, making this event an outlier tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$9,673結束日期
2026-07-22市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 12:10 AM ETSpain's ongoing heatwave, driven by a surge of hot, dry Saharan air mass advection beginning July 21, forms the core driver behind the tight 39–40°C contest for Madrid's July 22 maximum. Official AEMET monitoring and ensemble forecasts show regional highs pushing into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius amid clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, with Madrid's urban heat island potentially adding 1–2°C locally. Model consensus clusters near 39–40°C but diverges on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling, creating the balanced market-implied odds. Historical July baselines average around 33–35°C, making this event an outlier tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions