**Current ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models indicate a daytime high in Moscow on August 17 most likely near 24°C, aligning with the market's leading 48.5% implied probability.** Late-summer atmospheric patterns over European Russia feature moderate westerly flow and limited warm-air advection, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms of 22–24°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for partly cloudy skies, light winds, and minimal precipitation, which supports efficient daytime heating without excessive buildup. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 23°C and 25°C outcomes against typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C, while lower probabilities for 26°C+ reflect the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or southerly flow that would drive anomalous warmth. Updated guidance from agencies such as Roshydromet and ECMWF expected in the next 12–24 hours could further refine these market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月17日莫斯科最高溫度？
8月17日莫斯科最高溫度？
24°C 51%
23°C 28%
25°C 12%
22°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
9%
23°C
28%
24°C
51%
25°C
12%
26°C
4%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 51%
23°C 28%
25°C 12%
22°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
19°C or below
$258 交易量
<1%
20°C
$223 交易量
2%
21°C
$168 交易量
2%
22°C
$444 交易量
9%
23°C
$578 交易量
28%
24°C
$409 交易量
51%
25°C
$1,121 交易量
12%
26°C
$272 交易量
4%
27°C
$227 交易量
2%
28°C
$388 交易量
1%
29°C or higher
$685 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models indicate a daytime high in Moscow on August 17 most likely near 24°C, aligning with the market's leading 48.5% implied probability.** Late-summer atmospheric patterns over European Russia feature moderate westerly flow and limited warm-air advection, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms of 22–24°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for partly cloudy skies, light winds, and minimal precipitation, which supports efficient daytime heating without excessive buildup. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 23°C and 25°C outcomes against typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C, while lower probabilities for 26°C+ reflect the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or southerly flow that would drive anomalous warmth. Updated guidance from agencies such as Roshydromet and ECMWF expected in the next 12–24 hours could further refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
交易量
$4,772結束日期
2026-08-17市場開放時間
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models indicate a daytime high in Moscow on August 17 most likely near 24°C, aligning with the market's leading 48.5% implied probability.** Late-summer atmospheric patterns over European Russia feature moderate westerly flow and limited warm-air advection, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms of 22–24°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for partly cloudy skies, light winds, and minimal precipitation, which supports efficient daytime heating without excessive buildup. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 23°C and 25°C outcomes against typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C, while lower probabilities for 26°C+ reflect the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or southerly flow that would drive anomalous warmth. Updated guidance from agencies such as Roshydromet and ECMWF expected in the next 12–24 hours could further refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,772結束日期
2026-08-17市場開放時間
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models indicate a daytime high in Moscow on August 17 most likely near 24°C, aligning with the market's leading 48.5% implied probability.** Late-summer atmospheric patterns over European Russia feature moderate westerly flow and limited warm-air advection, keeping temperatures close to seasonal norms of 22–24°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for partly cloudy skies, light winds, and minimal precipitation, which supports efficient daytime heating without excessive buildup. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 23°C and 25°C outcomes against typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C, while lower probabilities for 26°C+ reflect the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or southerly flow that would drive anomalous warmth. Updated guidance from agencies such as Roshydromet and ECMWF expected in the next 12–24 hours could further refine these market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions