Forecast models and real-time observations position 30–31°C as the leading outcomes for Shenzhen’s daily maximum on September 15, 2026, reflecting widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and light rain that limit solar insolation and convective heating. Subtropical monsoon conditions typical of mid-September produce afternoon highs near 31°C on average, but recent days featured heavy precipitation and overcast skies that capped temperatures at 31–32°C; similar dynamics today suppress the peak below clearer-sky expectations of 33°C or higher. Market-implied odds align closely with official guidance from regional meteorological agencies showing 25–32°C ranges and modest wind, with only low-probability tails for extremes given stable steering patterns and high humidity. Updated model runs through the afternoon will determine final resolution as any late-day clearing could nudge readings toward 31°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月15日深圳最高溫度？
9月15日深圳最高溫度？
30°C 45%
29°C 30%
31°C 15%
32°C 2%
最新
$37,535 交易量
最新
$37,535 交易量
2026-09-15
26°C或以下
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
35%
30°C
45%
31°C
15%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C或更高
<1%
30°C 45%
29°C 30%
31°C 15%
32°C 2%
最新
$37,535 交易量
最新
$37,535 交易量
2026-09-15
26°C或以下
$238 交易量
<1%
27°C
$408 交易量
<1%
28°C
$10,664 交易量
<1%
29°C
$6,115 交易量
35%
30°C
$4,254 交易量
45%
31°C
$2,499 交易量
15%
32°C
$6,561 交易量
2%
33°C
$3,455 交易量
<1%
34°C
$2,532 交易量
<1%
35°C
$595 交易量
<1%
36°C或更高
$214 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and real-time observations position 30–31°C as the leading outcomes for Shenzhen’s daily maximum on September 15, 2026, reflecting widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and light rain that limit solar insolation and convective heating. Subtropical monsoon conditions typical of mid-September produce afternoon highs near 31°C on average, but recent days featured heavy precipitation and overcast skies that capped temperatures at 31–32°C; similar dynamics today suppress the peak below clearer-sky expectations of 33°C or higher. Market-implied odds align closely with official guidance from regional meteorological agencies showing 25–32°C ranges and modest wind, with only low-probability tails for extremes given stable steering patterns and high humidity. Updated model runs through the afternoon will determine final resolution as any late-day clearing could nudge readings toward 31°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
交易量
$37,535結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and real-time observations position 30–31°C as the leading outcomes for Shenzhen’s daily maximum on September 15, 2026, reflecting widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and light rain that limit solar insolation and convective heating. Subtropical monsoon conditions typical of mid-September produce afternoon highs near 31°C on average, but recent days featured heavy precipitation and overcast skies that capped temperatures at 31–32°C; similar dynamics today suppress the peak below clearer-sky expectations of 33°C or higher. Market-implied odds align closely with official guidance from regional meteorological agencies showing 25–32°C ranges and modest wind, with only low-probability tails for extremes given stable steering patterns and high humidity. Updated model runs through the afternoon will determine final resolution as any late-day clearing could nudge readings toward 31°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$37,535結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETForecast models and real-time observations position 30–31°C as the leading outcomes for Shenzhen’s daily maximum on September 15, 2026, reflecting widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and light rain that limit solar insolation and convective heating. Subtropical monsoon conditions typical of mid-September produce afternoon highs near 31°C on average, but recent days featured heavy precipitation and overcast skies that capped temperatures at 31–32°C; similar dynamics today suppress the peak below clearer-sky expectations of 33°C or higher. Market-implied odds align closely with official guidance from regional meteorological agencies showing 25–32°C ranges and modest wind, with only low-probability tails for extremes given stable steering patterns and high humidity. Updated model runs through the afternoon will determine final resolution as any late-day clearing could nudge readings toward 31°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions